Foresight News reports that Fidelity Digital Assets recently published an analysis noting that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to its highest level since Bitcoin’s inception, while U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion. Interest payments have exceeded Medicare spending, becoming the second-largest item in the federal budget.

Fidelity noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with the U.S. 10-year real interest rate was historically low for a long time, but has gradually turned positive in recent years. In 2026, the correlation climbed above 0.6, reaching a record high. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has risen nearly 30%, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has increased by more than 10%.

Fidelity believes that as government debt and borrowing costs rise and concerns over fiscal intervention intensify, Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins could make it more attractive as a potential hedge against currency debasement and a portfolio diversifier. If current debt and interest-rate trends continue, government interest payments could eventually become the largest item in the federal budget.

U.S. Treasury data show that the U.S. federal budget deficit rose to $1.99 trillion in fiscal year 2026, up from $1.78 trillion in fiscal year 2025, its highest level since the pandemic. Despite the Trump administration’s pledge to cut spending, rising military and Social Security spending and interest on the national debt, coupled with falling corporate tax revenue, have further widened the deficit.