VIX exploded 22% in a day. The atmosphere was the same that Friday 39 years ago.
TL;DR: Inflation hasn’t been brought under control, rate-hike bets are back, and $BTC is holding the line at $81,500.
◆ Double whammy from inflation: September CPI came in at 3.7% (reported 10/14), while September PPI rose 1.3% month over month (reported 10/15), versus expectations of just 0.6%—the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. Year over year, it was up 6.3%, with gasoline prices jumping 9.1% in a month.
◆ Rate-hike bets reignite: The FOMC meets on October 27–28. When CPI was released, the probability of a rate hike surged to around 44%, then fell back to around 30% after officials talked it down. The next CPI report won’t come out until November 10, so for the next two weeks, it’s all about oil prices.
◆ Oil adds fuel to the fire: WTI surged to $101.7, up 3.8% in a day and 16% over 10 days. There were also reports of an attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline. If oil prices don’t fall, inflation really won’t come down.
◆ Market reaction: VIX soared 22%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.15% on Friday. Coincidentally, this Monday marks the 39th anniversary of 1987’s “Black Monday.”
◆ What about $BTC ? Around $81,500, down about 1% over 24 hours—not exactly a collapse. But liquidations over the past 24 hours wiped out $944 million. Gold is still setting records around $4,150, while “digital gold” hasn’t kept up this time.
My take: For Bitcoin to hold above $81K in this kind of macro environment is already a sign of resilience. The real test is the FOMC meeting on the 27th and oil prices. As long as oil doesn’t keep surging, $81K is a solid floor.
What do you think? A: Get out before the 27th. B: If it holds, keep holding. Pick a side in the comments 👇
Just my personal opinion; not investment advice.
#BTC #比特币 #Macro
TL;DR: Inflation hasn’t been brought under control, rate-hike bets are back, and $BTC is holding the line at $81,500.
◆ Double whammy from inflation: September CPI came in at 3.7% (reported 10/14), while September PPI rose 1.3% month over month (reported 10/15), versus expectations of just 0.6%—the biggest monthly increase since March 2022. Year over year, it was up 6.3%, with gasoline prices jumping 9.1% in a month.
◆ Rate-hike bets reignite: The FOMC meets on October 27–28. When CPI was released, the probability of a rate hike surged to around 44%, then fell back to around 30% after officials talked it down. The next CPI report won’t come out until November 10, so for the next two weeks, it’s all about oil prices.
◆ Oil adds fuel to the fire: WTI surged to $101.7, up 3.8% in a day and 16% over 10 days. There were also reports of an attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline. If oil prices don’t fall, inflation really won’t come down.
◆ Market reaction: VIX soared 22%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.15% on Friday. Coincidentally, this Monday marks the 39th anniversary of 1987’s “Black Monday.”
◆ What about $BTC ? Around $81,500, down about 1% over 24 hours—not exactly a collapse. But liquidations over the past 24 hours wiped out $944 million. Gold is still setting records around $4,150, while “digital gold” hasn’t kept up this time.
My take: For Bitcoin to hold above $81K in this kind of macro environment is already a sign of resilience. The real test is the FOMC meeting on the 27th and oil prices. As long as oil doesn’t keep surging, $81K is a solid floor.
What do you think? A: Get out before the 27th. B: If it holds, keep holding. Pick a side in the comments 👇
Just my personal opinion; not investment advice.
#BTC #比特币 #Macro