When markets opened Friday night, the Nasdaq hit you with a gut punch right out of the gate: down 2.15%. The S&P 500 fell 1.25% too. The VIX was even more dramatic, surging 22% in a single day. Oil? WTI broke above $101, gaining nearly 4% on the day and 16% in 10 days. Reports say a Saudi oil pipeline was attacked. The WSJ put the settlement price at $101.41, the highest this month. But safe-haven money didn’t flow into Treasuries—instead, the 10-year yield climbed above 5.1%.
What are U.S. stocks worried about? Next Monday marks the 39th anniversary of Black Monday in 1987, when the S&P 500 plunged more than 20% in a single day. Today is exactly the Friday from 39 years ago. The spooky coincidences are off the charts, and investors are getting out first.
What about crypto? Bitcoin fell just over 1%, holding around the $81,500 level. The latest data from Finnhub: $81,793, down 0.86%. It fell along with the market at the open, but as U.S. stocks slid harder through the afternoon, Bitcoin steadied instead.
The starkest contrast was this: Strategy (MSTR) fell more than 9% in a day, closing just above $136; AI computing stock CoreWeave also dropped 8%, down more than 20% for the week. Bitcoin fell 1%, while crypto stocks fell 9%—that’s not a pattern we’ve often seen before. Reports say MSTR got hit from both sides: fears of being dropped from the MSCI index, compounded by the broader market sell-off.
Why didn’t $BTC fall this time? Two signals. First, bets on an October rate hike have collapsed: they were still at 45% after the CPI report, but now they’re down to just 15%. Second, Catherine Chen, head of Binance’s institutional business, weighed in: this is a sentiment shock, not a structural breakdown, and inflation will most likely peak in October.
On a related note, ETFs haven’t recovered yet: ZEC’s fund saw its fifth redemption this month, worth $15 million; Ethereum funds saw $60 million flow out in a single day. Bitcoin at least had net inflows of $5 million. Prices are holding up, but institutional money hasn’t returned. ZEC was even more volatile: it led the pack yesterday with an 11% gain, then fell 7% today to $1,146.
It’s the weekend, and Monday marks the 39th anniversary. I’ve set a price alert at $80,000.