CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index is at 60/100 this Friday, 16/10 (22:50 UTC): 60 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are outperforming $BTC over 90 days. It was at 33 a month ago. But the threshold for a true โaltcoin seasonโ is still 75, and the details tell a different story.
Among the majors, it's a close contest. Over 90 days, BTC is up 26.2%. $ETH (+30.2%), SOL (+38.3%) and BNB (+26.7%) are narrowly ahead. $XRP (+19.8%), DOGE (+11.5%) and TRX (+2.9%) are lagging.
Mid caps are in a different league: QNT +215%, NEAR +163%, ZRO +161%, STRK +154%, according to CMC data. They're the ones driving the index, not the large caps.
Another nuance: outperforming BTC doesn't mean going up. The altcoin market cap measured by CMC fell from $1.20T on 5/10 to about $1.10T tonight (-8%), while the index stayed between 55 and 63. Alts are falling alongside BTC, just a little more slowly. BTC dominance: 59.4% (CoinGecko).
My take: selective rotation, not a generalized altseason. For someone who mainly holds majors, an index at 60 says almost nothing about their portfolio.
Two possible paths for the coming weeks. If BTC recovers $84,000 and the index breaks above its yearly high of 64 (27/09), the rotation could spread to the majors, with 75 as a real test. If BTC drops back below $79,800 (the 15/10 low), September could play out again: the index had fallen to 23 on 1/09.
Are you playing the rotation with a few mid caps, or sticking with BTC/ETH until the index rises above 75?
#Altcoins #AltcoinSeason
Among the majors, it's a close contest. Over 90 days, BTC is up 26.2%. $ETH (+30.2%), SOL (+38.3%) and BNB (+26.7%) are narrowly ahead. $XRP (+19.8%), DOGE (+11.5%) and TRX (+2.9%) are lagging.
Mid caps are in a different league: QNT +215%, NEAR +163%, ZRO +161%, STRK +154%, according to CMC data. They're the ones driving the index, not the large caps.
Another nuance: outperforming BTC doesn't mean going up. The altcoin market cap measured by CMC fell from $1.20T on 5/10 to about $1.10T tonight (-8%), while the index stayed between 55 and 63. Alts are falling alongside BTC, just a little more slowly. BTC dominance: 59.4% (CoinGecko).
My take: selective rotation, not a generalized altseason. For someone who mainly holds majors, an index at 60 says almost nothing about their portfolio.
Two possible paths for the coming weeks. If BTC recovers $84,000 and the index breaks above its yearly high of 64 (27/09), the rotation could spread to the majors, with 75 as a real test. If BTC drops back below $79,800 (the 15/10 low), September could play out again: the index had fallen to 23 on 1/09.
Are you playing the rotation with a few mid caps, or sticking with BTC/ETH until the index rises above 75?
#Altcoins #AltcoinSeason