4.08 million BTC $BTC changed hands! How much did retail investors absorb?
Guys, I went quiet for a moment when I saw this on-chain data. Short-term Bitcoin holders’ holdings have surged to 4.08 million BTC, the highest since June. Put simply, how much of those 4.08 million BTC belongs to retail investors like you and me?
These coins are concentrated around a cost basis of $82,000 to $86,000, and the unrealized profit buffer has shrunk from 16% to 10%. What does that mean? Those of us who bought in near the top start getting nervous after even a small dip, and if it falls further, we sell at a loss. It’s not that we don’t want to hold; our cost basis is just too high, and we’re too on edge. Accumulation over the past week was only 48,000 BTC, and buying momentum is also slowing. Newcomers don’t dare to jump in.
I don’t think this is entirely bearish. Having buyers step in is better than having none. But with so many coins concentrated among short-term holders, volatility is bound to be significant. There’s one level to watch next: the average cost basis for short-term holders, $74,900. If it holds, things may grind along slowly; if it breaks down, we’ll probably see another wave of panic selling.
So my plan is simple: it’s Saturday, liquidity is thin, and the macroeconomic bad news hasn’t been fully priced in. Stay in cash, do nothing, and don’t try to catch a falling knife. First, watch whether $79,000 can hold. If it can’t, then watch $74,900—that’s the real capitulation line for short-term holders. Missing out doesn’t cost you money; jumping in recklessly can be fatal.
Of those 4.08 million BTC, are you one of the holders, or are you sitting in cash and watching? Let’s talk in the comments. $BTC $ETH $BNB #比特币短期持有者持仓升至408万枚 #比特币回升至8.2万美元
Guys, I went quiet for a moment when I saw this on-chain data. Short-term Bitcoin holders’ holdings have surged to 4.08 million BTC, the highest since June. Put simply, how much of those 4.08 million BTC belongs to retail investors like you and me?
These coins are concentrated around a cost basis of $82,000 to $86,000, and the unrealized profit buffer has shrunk from 16% to 10%. What does that mean? Those of us who bought in near the top start getting nervous after even a small dip, and if it falls further, we sell at a loss. It’s not that we don’t want to hold; our cost basis is just too high, and we’re too on edge. Accumulation over the past week was only 48,000 BTC, and buying momentum is also slowing. Newcomers don’t dare to jump in.
I don’t think this is entirely bearish. Having buyers step in is better than having none. But with so many coins concentrated among short-term holders, volatility is bound to be significant. There’s one level to watch next: the average cost basis for short-term holders, $74,900. If it holds, things may grind along slowly; if it breaks down, we’ll probably see another wave of panic selling.
So my plan is simple: it’s Saturday, liquidity is thin, and the macroeconomic bad news hasn’t been fully priced in. Stay in cash, do nothing, and don’t try to catch a falling knife. First, watch whether $79,000 can hold. If it can’t, then watch $74,900—that’s the real capitulation line for short-term holders. Missing out doesn’t cost you money; jumping in recklessly can be fatal.
Of those 4.08 million BTC, are you one of the holders, or are you sitting in cash and watching? Let’s talk in the comments. $BTC $ETH $BNB #比特币短期持有者持仓升至408万枚 #比特币回升至8.2万美元