Big news: The odds of a Fed rate hike in October nearly halved in a single day 📉
The latest interest-rate futures pricing shows:
🔹 The probability of a rate hike at the October 28 meeting fell to around 15%, from about 27% the previous day
🔹 The probability of holding rates steady at the current 3.75%–4.00% returned to around 85%
🔹 The turning point was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks, which gave no indication of further rate hikes
The market reaction was immediate:
🔹 Bitcoin held near $82,000
🔹 South Korean stocks rebounded about 2%
🔹 But the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.13% intraday, while U.S. stocks closed mixed
My take: Rate-hike fears have eased for now, giving crypto markets some breathing room. But with long-term yields still above 5%, financial conditions haven’t really loosened. With less than two weeks to go until October 28, any new data could send these odds swinging again.
Do you think the Fed will hold steady in October, or could there be a surprise? 👇
#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallToAbout17% #BTC #ETH
The latest interest-rate futures pricing shows:
🔹 The probability of a rate hike at the October 28 meeting fell to around 15%, from about 27% the previous day
🔹 The probability of holding rates steady at the current 3.75%–4.00% returned to around 85%
🔹 The turning point was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks, which gave no indication of further rate hikes
The market reaction was immediate:
🔹 Bitcoin held near $82,000
🔹 South Korean stocks rebounded about 2%
🔹 But the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.13% intraday, while U.S. stocks closed mixed
My take: Rate-hike fears have eased for now, giving crypto markets some breathing room. But with long-term yields still above 5%, financial conditions haven’t really loosened. With less than two weeks to go until October 28, any new data could send these odds swinging again.
Do you think the Fed will hold steady in October, or could there be a surprise? 👇
#FedOctoberRateHikeOddsFallToAbout17% #BTC #ETH