【Down 93%—is the bottom in? Retail investors have been making this mistake for 20 years】
People keep asking me: “AVAX has fallen almost 100% from its peak and is now just above $10. Is it time to buy the dip?”
I laughed. A big drop has never meant a bottom is in. Those are two completely different things.
Where’s AVAX now? Around $10. Key support is at $9.69, resistance at $10.72. It’s stuck grinding around in that range. It’s down 0.6% over 24 hours and 1.5% over the week—not painful, but there’s no clear direction either.
What about sentiment? FNG is at 63, in greedy territory, with a weekly average of 61—pretty much in line. No panic, no euphoria. Just waiting.
Is the valuation low? Sure. That 93% drop speaks for itself. But a low valuation is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one. Markets don’t rise just because something is cheap. They need a catalyst.
Here’s the real question: who’s losing sleep over this price level?
Retail investors still holding on can’t bring themselves to sell, but can’t see a reason for prices to rise either. Those waiting for a breakout above $10.72 before jumping in are afraid of missing out, but also afraid of getting stuck holding the bag. And for anyone looking to buy the bottom, this is an awkward spot: there could be more downside, while the upside is uncertain.
From a business perspective, for AVAX to really take off, we need to see real progress in its ecosystem, TVL picking up, and institutions putting real money in. Not slogans—actual results.
My view: wait and see. I’m neither bullish nor bearish. I’m waiting for a signal.
What are we waiting for? The day trading volume surges unusually, the day BTC’s market dominance pulls back, the day altcoins start moving as a group.
What direction are the signals pointing on your end?
People keep asking me: “AVAX has fallen almost 100% from its peak and is now just above $10. Is it time to buy the dip?”
I laughed. A big drop has never meant a bottom is in. Those are two completely different things.
Where’s AVAX now? Around $10. Key support is at $9.69, resistance at $10.72. It’s stuck grinding around in that range. It’s down 0.6% over 24 hours and 1.5% over the week—not painful, but there’s no clear direction either.
What about sentiment? FNG is at 63, in greedy territory, with a weekly average of 61—pretty much in line. No panic, no euphoria. Just waiting.
Is the valuation low? Sure. That 93% drop speaks for itself. But a low valuation is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one. Markets don’t rise just because something is cheap. They need a catalyst.
Here’s the real question: who’s losing sleep over this price level?
Retail investors still holding on can’t bring themselves to sell, but can’t see a reason for prices to rise either. Those waiting for a breakout above $10.72 before jumping in are afraid of missing out, but also afraid of getting stuck holding the bag. And for anyone looking to buy the bottom, this is an awkward spot: there could be more downside, while the upside is uncertain.
From a business perspective, for AVAX to really take off, we need to see real progress in its ecosystem, TVL picking up, and institutions putting real money in. Not slogans—actual results.
My view: wait and see. I’m neither bullish nor bearish. I’m waiting for a signal.
What are we waiting for? The day trading volume surges unusually, the day BTC’s market dominance pulls back, the day altcoins start moving as a group.
What direction are the signals pointing on your end?