Today's review | How I turned "getting it right three times" into "losing everything"
I took a small profit on Trump1 and ran; then it went on a huge rally. I sat on Chinese Neuro Frog while it traded sideways with no action, then it took off just minutes after I sold. I cut Zhuanzhuan, then Trading Cat went up tenfold. I tried to catch its second leg and got stuck, then opened dozens of random trades trying to make it back.
Reasons:
1. I had no reason to hold; as soon as it went up a little, I wanted to take profits
When I entered, I only thought, "This narrative could go up." I never thought about what price would prove me right or how long I should hold. With no target, I could only sell based on emotion, so every time I sold right at the start of the move.
2. I hadn't defined what would invalidate my thesis, so sideways action made me doubt myself
Neuro Frog had been moving sideways for a long time, and I started thinking, "Maybe no one's coming anymore." But trading sideways doesn't mean the narrative has failed. I hadn't decided in advance what would count as being wrong, so I used "nothing's happening" as my excuse. As soon as the market went quiet, my confidence collapsed first.
3. When a narrative has several tokens, I was gambling instead of making a judgment
The same narrative can have several tokens. I didn't work out which one was the leader; I just picked one based on a gut feeling. I picked the wrong one and didn't cut my losses in time, so I held on until I sold at a loss. In this situation, picking the right one is luck; picking the wrong one is the norm.
4. I treated "profits I missed out on" as "money I lost"
This was the most fatal mistake. Watching Trading Cat go up tenfold, I couldn't let it go, so I chased it at the peak of the hype. Then I opened dozens of random trades trying to make it back. Missing a move just means making less; trying to make up for it is what really causes losses.
What I'll do differently:
1. Before entering, write down my reason for holding, my target, and what would invalidate my thesis
2. For positions I enter early, decide in advance how long I'm willing to wait; sideways action isn't a reason to sell
3. When a narrative has several tokens, wait until the leader is confirmed before entering—don't gamble
4. Don't chase something that's already run up a lot; if I missed it, I missed it
(Avoid trying to catch a second leg on BSC, if possible)
5. Set a daily limit on the number of trades and losses; once I hit it, close the app
Missing a move isn't fatal; revenge trading is.
For review purposes only, not investment advice.
I took a small profit on Trump1 and ran; then it went on a huge rally. I sat on Chinese Neuro Frog while it traded sideways with no action, then it took off just minutes after I sold. I cut Zhuanzhuan, then Trading Cat went up tenfold. I tried to catch its second leg and got stuck, then opened dozens of random trades trying to make it back.
Reasons:
1. I had no reason to hold; as soon as it went up a little, I wanted to take profits
When I entered, I only thought, "This narrative could go up." I never thought about what price would prove me right or how long I should hold. With no target, I could only sell based on emotion, so every time I sold right at the start of the move.
2. I hadn't defined what would invalidate my thesis, so sideways action made me doubt myself
Neuro Frog had been moving sideways for a long time, and I started thinking, "Maybe no one's coming anymore." But trading sideways doesn't mean the narrative has failed. I hadn't decided in advance what would count as being wrong, so I used "nothing's happening" as my excuse. As soon as the market went quiet, my confidence collapsed first.
3. When a narrative has several tokens, I was gambling instead of making a judgment
The same narrative can have several tokens. I didn't work out which one was the leader; I just picked one based on a gut feeling. I picked the wrong one and didn't cut my losses in time, so I held on until I sold at a loss. In this situation, picking the right one is luck; picking the wrong one is the norm.
4. I treated "profits I missed out on" as "money I lost"
This was the most fatal mistake. Watching Trading Cat go up tenfold, I couldn't let it go, so I chased it at the peak of the hype. Then I opened dozens of random trades trying to make it back. Missing a move just means making less; trying to make up for it is what really causes losses.
What I'll do differently:
1. Before entering, write down my reason for holding, my target, and what would invalidate my thesis
2. For positions I enter early, decide in advance how long I'm willing to wait; sideways action isn't a reason to sell
3. When a narrative has several tokens, wait until the leader is confirmed before entering—don't gamble
4. Don't chase something that's already run up a lot; if I missed it, I missed it
(Avoid trying to catch a second leg on BSC, if possible)
5. Set a daily limit on the number of trades and losses; once I hit it, close the app
Missing a move isn't fatal; revenge trading is.
For review purposes only, not investment advice.