Rate-hike suspense has been a roller-coaster ride over the past ten days.
The double upside surprises of September CPI rising 3.7% year over year and PPI increasing 6.3% briefly pushed the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October above 40%. As of Thursday morning Beijing time (October 15), FedWatch still put the odds at 27.1%, with markets betting overnight that the Fed would make back-to-back moves.
But one remark from Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok—“I won’t prejudge the meeting”—quickly cooled those expectations. CME FedWatch showed the odds of a hike at the October 27–28 policy meeting falling to around 16%, while the probability of rates holding steady at 3.75–4.00% rose to 84%—even lower than the 17.7% level a week earlier. The rate-hike premium created by the inflation data was completely erased.
What’s changed: This doesn’t mean the Fed has turned dovish. Most of the 18 FOMC officials still expect another rate hike this year, and Kalshi puts the odds of a December hike at nearly 75%. The market and the dot plot disagree on “when to hike,” not “whether to hike.” The next major repricing will likely have to wait until the next CPI and jobs reports are released.
The impact: For $BTC and risk assets, holding steady in October would mean a pause in monetary tightening and a window to catch a breath—but the December test is still on the table. The rate narrative has shifted from “hiking soon” to “we’ll see at year-end.” Take the short-term tailwind, but don’t mistake it for a ticket to a trend reversal.
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
#OctoberFedHikeOddsFallToAround17%
#美联储 #BTC
The double upside surprises of September CPI rising 3.7% year over year and PPI increasing 6.3% briefly pushed the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October above 40%. As of Thursday morning Beijing time (October 15), FedWatch still put the odds at 27.1%, with markets betting overnight that the Fed would make back-to-back moves.
But one remark from Chair Kevin Warsh at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok—“I won’t prejudge the meeting”—quickly cooled those expectations. CME FedWatch showed the odds of a hike at the October 27–28 policy meeting falling to around 16%, while the probability of rates holding steady at 3.75–4.00% rose to 84%—even lower than the 17.7% level a week earlier. The rate-hike premium created by the inflation data was completely erased.
What’s changed: This doesn’t mean the Fed has turned dovish. Most of the 18 FOMC officials still expect another rate hike this year, and Kalshi puts the odds of a December hike at nearly 75%. The market and the dot plot disagree on “when to hike,” not “whether to hike.” The next major repricing will likely have to wait until the next CPI and jobs reports are released.
The impact: For $BTC and risk assets, holding steady in October would mean a pause in monetary tightening and a window to catch a breath—but the December test is still on the table. The rate narrative has shifted from “hiking soon” to “we’ll see at year-end.” Take the short-term tailwind, but don’t mistake it for a ticket to a trend reversal.
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
#OctoberFedHikeOddsFallToAround17%
#美联储 #BTC