Oil has climbed back above $100 and the Nasdaq fell 2.4% this Friday, 16/10, but $BTC is still holding above $80,000 (~$81,100 around 19:00 UTC on Binance).
The chart compares the two since Wall Street opened at 13:30 UTC: the Nasdaq Composite is down 2.2%, while BTC is down just 1.1%. The slide accelerates around 17:00 UTC, when WTI gains about $3 in two hours, reaching $101.7 (+3.8%, a one-month high, according to CoinDesk). The trigger: reports of a new attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline, carried by Iranian TV channel IRIB, with no confirmation from Riyadh at this point.
What follows is logical. The US 10-year yield climbs back to 5.11% after dipping to 5.07%, and crypto stocks take a harder hit than the coin (MSTR -9.2%, COIN -3.5%, according to CoinDesk).
What concerns me is the derivatives side. On Binance Futures, the share of accounts long on BTC rises from 61.8% to 63.2% between 16:00 and 18:00 UTC (ratio of 1.62 to 1.72), while open interest has fallen by about 1.6% since 14:00 UTC. Likely interpretation: overall position size is shrinking as more small accounts buy the dip.
My take: BTC is holding up better than tech, but it’s heading into the weekend without Wall Street to set the tone, with a lot of longs stacked just above Thursday’s low.
Two paths. If $80,000 holds and BTC reclaims $82,940 (the day’s high), the target shifts back to $84,350, Monday’s high. If $79,800 gives way on another oil headline, those longs become fuel for a wick.
$ETH is following the same path, at ~$2,405 (-2% over 24 hours).
This weekend, do you see BTC defending $80,000 or going after the longs below $79,800?
#Bitcoin #Macro
The chart compares the two since Wall Street opened at 13:30 UTC: the Nasdaq Composite is down 2.2%, while BTC is down just 1.1%. The slide accelerates around 17:00 UTC, when WTI gains about $3 in two hours, reaching $101.7 (+3.8%, a one-month high, according to CoinDesk). The trigger: reports of a new attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline, carried by Iranian TV channel IRIB, with no confirmation from Riyadh at this point.
What follows is logical. The US 10-year yield climbs back to 5.11% after dipping to 5.07%, and crypto stocks take a harder hit than the coin (MSTR -9.2%, COIN -3.5%, according to CoinDesk).
What concerns me is the derivatives side. On Binance Futures, the share of accounts long on BTC rises from 61.8% to 63.2% between 16:00 and 18:00 UTC (ratio of 1.62 to 1.72), while open interest has fallen by about 1.6% since 14:00 UTC. Likely interpretation: overall position size is shrinking as more small accounts buy the dip.
My take: BTC is holding up better than tech, but it’s heading into the weekend without Wall Street to set the tone, with a lot of longs stacked just above Thursday’s low.
Two paths. If $80,000 holds and BTC reclaims $82,940 (the day’s high), the target shifts back to $84,350, Monday’s high. If $79,800 gives way on another oil headline, those longs become fuel for a wick.
$ETH is following the same path, at ~$2,405 (-2% over 24 hours).
This weekend, do you see BTC defending $80,000 or going after the longs below $79,800?
#Bitcoin #Macro