A signal that only appeared 4 times in $BTC history is firing again.
Every single time it marked the bottom.
What this chart tracks:
Average P&L of sellers over a 1-year window. When realized losses match realized gains, it means most holders are capitulating — selling at a loss because they can't take the pain anymore.
This crossover happened in:
2012 → $BTC ~$10 → ran to $1,000+
2015 → $BTC ~$200 → ran to $19k
2018 → $BTC ~$3,500 → ran to $60k+
2022 → $BTC ~$20k → ran to $126k ATH in 2025
And now the lines are crossing again.
Why it works:
When the last scared holder sells, there's no one left to dump. Supply shifts to long-term believers. Demand starts absorbing everything.
This stacks with:
- Golden cross forming
- RSI bouncing from oversold
- Sentiment at multi-year lows
If history repeats, we might be looking at the cycle bottom right now.
Every single time it marked the bottom.
What this chart tracks:
Average P&L of sellers over a 1-year window. When realized losses match realized gains, it means most holders are capitulating — selling at a loss because they can't take the pain anymore.
This crossover happened in:
2012 → $BTC ~$10 → ran to $1,000+
2015 → $BTC ~$200 → ran to $19k
2018 → $BTC ~$3,500 → ran to $60k+
2022 → $BTC ~$20k → ran to $126k ATH in 2025
And now the lines are crossing again.
Why it works:
When the last scared holder sells, there's no one left to dump. Supply shifts to long-term believers. Demand starts absorbing everything.
This stacks with:
- Golden cross forming
- RSI bouncing from oversold
- Sentiment at multi-year lows
If history repeats, we might be looking at the cycle bottom right now.