Fed Chair Warsh was asked at noon today whether they’d raise rates in October.
He replied, “We’ll see when the time comes.”
That’s basically saying nothing—but the market loves it 👏

Ahead of the meeting, everyone was bracing for him to strike a hawkish tone. After all, CPI is sitting at 3.7%—it’s there for everyone to see.
But he didn’t mention inflation once during the entire event. Bets on a rate hike were pulled immediately, and the odds fell from 28% to 15%. U.S. stocks rose along with them.

What he really wanted to talk about was AI. He called it “superintelligence” and “the most far-reaching economic transformation of my lifetime.”
He said the current wave of AI spending is pushing prices up, and that a task force will be set up specifically to study AI’s impact on employment. Hearings on the issue will begin in November.

In short:
A hawkish Fed chair gave a dovish press conference, and the market loved it.
#美联储10月加息概率降至约17%