According to Jin10, Canadian crude producers have not captured the highest prices despite a sustained surge in global oil prices. In recent weeks, the discount on Canadian heavy crude relative to U.S. crude has widened sharply. Alberta oil sands producers are currently receiving about $26 less per barrel than their U.S. competitors. The widening gap reflects the combined effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's foreign policy: after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was ousted in January this year, Canadian producers faced stronger competition from Venezuelan heavy crude, which some refineries are configured to process. In the following months, the Iran war sent tanker freight rates soaring, contributing to a surplus of U.S. heavy crude and further weakening demand for Canadian oil. Canada's only export pipeline to the West Coast is operating at full capacity, limiting producers' ability to sell at higher prices. Carney supports building a new pipeline to the coast of British Columbia with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day to ease the export bottleneck and allow Alberta crude to compete more in global markets against the higher-priced Brent benchmark.
