CPI knocked it down yesterday, and today it V-shaped back to $82,000! The past 24 hours in crypto have been a wild ride
Guys, the crypto market went through a bloodbath last night, then bounced right back today—the plot has more twists than a TV drama.
What happened last night? The U.S. September CPI came in at 3.7%, 0.1% above expectations. That tiny gap sent rate-hike expectations through the roof, and Bitcoin plunged to $80,154, its lowest level since September 20. Worse still for leveraged traders: $948 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with over 90% of it coming from long positions—the dip-buyers got wiped out.
Then the mood flipped this morning. Bitcoin climbed back to $82,644, up more than 2%, and Ethereum topped $2,478. Why? Fed Chair Warsh neither struck a hawkish nor a dovish tone in his speech in Bangkok. The market heard that and thought: “Maybe a rate hike in the near term is off the table?” That was enough to put half our worries to rest.
Yesterday we were in the ICU; today we're at the karaoke bar. But there are five things to watch in this rebound:
① 18,000 options expire today. The max pain price is $83,000, over $2,000 above the current price—options market makers have a pretty big say in where prices go. The final verdict comes with the Fed decision on October 28.
② ETFs are still seeing net outflows. U.S. spot ETFs saw $260 million in net outflows yesterday, bringing October's cumulative outflows to nearly $280 million. The key point: holders' average cost is about $82,300, almost right in line with the current price—so more volatility lies ahead.
③ Thailand opens its doors. Starting today, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are officially trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand: at least 80% of net assets must be invested in actual coins, and leverage is strictly prohibited.
④ The MSCI bomb is ticking. Strategy (which holds 848,000 BTC) could be kicked out of global indexes. JPMorgan estimates forced selling of about $2.8 billion, with other indexes potentially following suit and pushing the total to $10 billion. If this bomb goes off, it'll be much scarier than CPI.
⑤ The mining sector is going through a rough patch. Major mining stocks fell over 12% yesterday, and an old mining pool accounting for 2.3% of the network's hashrate shut down outright.
The sentiment index is at 52, neutral—not panic, just numbness.
In a nutshell: $80,000 is the floor, $83,000 is the magnet, and the Fed on October 28 is the final act. Rebound or not, ETFs are still seeing outflows and risks are still looming—buckle up for the second half. $BTC $ETH
Guys, the crypto market went through a bloodbath last night, then bounced right back today—the plot has more twists than a TV drama.
What happened last night? The U.S. September CPI came in at 3.7%, 0.1% above expectations. That tiny gap sent rate-hike expectations through the roof, and Bitcoin plunged to $80,154, its lowest level since September 20. Worse still for leveraged traders: $948 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with over 90% of it coming from long positions—the dip-buyers got wiped out.
Then the mood flipped this morning. Bitcoin climbed back to $82,644, up more than 2%, and Ethereum topped $2,478. Why? Fed Chair Warsh neither struck a hawkish nor a dovish tone in his speech in Bangkok. The market heard that and thought: “Maybe a rate hike in the near term is off the table?” That was enough to put half our worries to rest.
Yesterday we were in the ICU; today we're at the karaoke bar. But there are five things to watch in this rebound:
① 18,000 options expire today. The max pain price is $83,000, over $2,000 above the current price—options market makers have a pretty big say in where prices go. The final verdict comes with the Fed decision on October 28.
② ETFs are still seeing net outflows. U.S. spot ETFs saw $260 million in net outflows yesterday, bringing October's cumulative outflows to nearly $280 million. The key point: holders' average cost is about $82,300, almost right in line with the current price—so more volatility lies ahead.
③ Thailand opens its doors. Starting today, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are officially trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand: at least 80% of net assets must be invested in actual coins, and leverage is strictly prohibited.
④ The MSCI bomb is ticking. Strategy (which holds 848,000 BTC) could be kicked out of global indexes. JPMorgan estimates forced selling of about $2.8 billion, with other indexes potentially following suit and pushing the total to $10 billion. If this bomb goes off, it'll be much scarier than CPI.
⑤ The mining sector is going through a rough patch. Major mining stocks fell over 12% yesterday, and an old mining pool accounting for 2.3% of the network's hashrate shut down outright.
The sentiment index is at 52, neutral—not panic, just numbness.
In a nutshell: $80,000 is the floor, $83,000 is the magnet, and the Fed on October 28 is the final act. Rebound or not, ETFs are still seeing outflows and risks are still looming—buckle up for the second half. $BTC $ETH