MSTR price target raised to $208
Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for MSTR from $186 to $208, maintaining an Overweight rating. In the same report, its 12-month Bitcoin price target was raised from $98,000 to $112,000. Revaluing MSTR’s 848,000 BTC holdings at the new price lifts its enterprise value from $97 billion to $110 billion.
Those 848,000 BTC have been sitting untouched in cold wallets for the long term, leaving relatively few coins in circulation. On top of that, the financing pipeline—using convertible bonds and ATM offerings to buy Bitcoin—is still steadily pulling coins off the spot market, providing real support for spot prices above $100,000. The real short-term wildcard is the MSCI index: if some indices drop the company, passive funds will reduce their holdings, putting pressure on the mNAV premium first and slowing the flywheel of financing and Bitcoin purchases.
My view is that we’re likely to see a short-term pullback, followed by another move higher in the medium term. First, watch whether $105,000 holds. If it breaks, the price could retest the $100,000 round-number level for support. The period around the MSCI decision is likely to trigger this pullback; if it creates a dip, that could actually be a chance for bulls to add to their positions. If $105,000 holds, $112,000 is only a matter of time—don’t chase the price halfway up.
For those of you whose BTC cost basis is above $100,000: when the MSCI news hits, will you place limit orders to buy the dip, or sell half first?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for MSTR from $186 to $208, maintaining an Overweight rating. In the same report, its 12-month Bitcoin price target was raised from $98,000 to $112,000. Revaluing MSTR’s 848,000 BTC holdings at the new price lifts its enterprise value from $97 billion to $110 billion.
Those 848,000 BTC have been sitting untouched in cold wallets for the long term, leaving relatively few coins in circulation. On top of that, the financing pipeline—using convertible bonds and ATM offerings to buy Bitcoin—is still steadily pulling coins off the spot market, providing real support for spot prices above $100,000. The real short-term wildcard is the MSCI index: if some indices drop the company, passive funds will reduce their holdings, putting pressure on the mNAV premium first and slowing the flywheel of financing and Bitcoin purchases.
My view is that we’re likely to see a short-term pullback, followed by another move higher in the medium term. First, watch whether $105,000 holds. If it breaks, the price could retest the $100,000 round-number level for support. The period around the MSCI decision is likely to trigger this pullback; if it creates a dip, that could actually be a chance for bulls to add to their positions. If $105,000 holds, $112,000 is only a matter of time—don’t chase the price halfway up.
For those of you whose BTC cost basis is above $100,000: when the MSCI news hits, will you place limit orders to buy the dip, or sell half first?
$BTC $ETH $SOL