New York services just fell off a cliff. October PMI cratered to -20.7 from -8.7 the month before. Business climate still deep in the red at -35. Employment barely holding at zero after being negative. Wages cooling slightly but still elevated. And prices paid? Still running at 70.
This is the kind of data that doesn't make headlines but should. Services are the backbone of the US economy. When they weaken this fast, it's not just a blip. It's a signal that demand is softening and businesses are starting to feel it.
The weird part? Employment stabilized. Wages are still high. Prices are still high. But the overall business mood is grim. That's the setup for a messy few months: costs stay sticky, revenue slows, margins compress.
Markets love to ignore regional Fed surveys until they can't. This one's worth watching.
This is the kind of data that doesn't make headlines but should. Services are the backbone of the US economy. When they weaken this fast, it's not just a blip. It's a signal that demand is softening and businesses are starting to feel it.
The weird part? Employment stabilized. Wages are still high. Prices are still high. But the overall business mood is grim. That's the setup for a messy few months: costs stay sticky, revenue slows, margins compress.
Markets love to ignore regional Fed surveys until they can't. This one's worth watching.