PPI tops expectations; rate-cut bets cool
U.S. September PPI rose 6.3% year over year, versus expectations of 5.3%. The 1.3% month-over-month increase was double expectations. Warsh said the economy is resilient and AI investment is driving inflation, making it highly likely that interest rates will remain unchanged this month. CoreWeave fell 4.1% premarket, while Nebius dropped 2% as financing costs for highly leveraged AI-computing companies were repriced. Brent crude remains above $100.
The inflation data pushed rate-cut expectations further out, lifting real U.S. interest rates and pulling incremental buying out of crypto first. If BTC perpetual funding rates turn negative, leveraged longs chasing prices at elevated levels will gradually be flushed out. In the near term, prices are more likely to pull back to the previous-high support zone and consolidate. Whether that support holds depends on whether ETF net inflows turn negative for two consecutive days. ETH is following BTC lower, but its decline is narrowing; staking lockups are keeping spot selling pressure in check. SOL is high beta, so its pullbacks are usually 1.5 times larger. Market makers are pulling orders at thinly traded price levels, which will noticeably widen slippage.
What’s your cost basis on your long positions? Are you willing to ride out this data-driven move, or will you cut your position in half first?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
U.S. September PPI rose 6.3% year over year, versus expectations of 5.3%. The 1.3% month-over-month increase was double expectations. Warsh said the economy is resilient and AI investment is driving inflation, making it highly likely that interest rates will remain unchanged this month. CoreWeave fell 4.1% premarket, while Nebius dropped 2% as financing costs for highly leveraged AI-computing companies were repriced. Brent crude remains above $100.
The inflation data pushed rate-cut expectations further out, lifting real U.S. interest rates and pulling incremental buying out of crypto first. If BTC perpetual funding rates turn negative, leveraged longs chasing prices at elevated levels will gradually be flushed out. In the near term, prices are more likely to pull back to the previous-high support zone and consolidate. Whether that support holds depends on whether ETF net inflows turn negative for two consecutive days. ETH is following BTC lower, but its decline is narrowing; staking lockups are keeping spot selling pressure in check. SOL is high beta, so its pullbacks are usually 1.5 times larger. Market makers are pulling orders at thinly traded price levels, which will noticeably widen slippage.
What’s your cost basis on your long positions? Are you willing to ride out this data-driven move, or will you cut your position in half first?
$BTC $ETH $SOL