💡 A different perspective: Warsh “said nothing” in Bangkok, and the market understood everything
This morning (Bangkok time), Fed Chair Warsh chatted with Managing Director Georgieva at the IMF annual meeting. Asked whether the Fed would raise rates at its October 27–28 meeting—
His exact words were: “I do not prejudge meetings.” In plain English: I’m not making predictions about meetings—you can guess for yourselves. The Fed is done with “signaling in advance.”
📌 Three key takeaways
① He acknowledged that after the September rate hike, the economy’s trajectory was “broadly in line with the Fed’s expectations”
② The whole world is tightening, and “there are no free riders”
③ He called AI a “positive supply shock”—building factories is good; price increases are a bump in the road
📊 The market’s reaction says it all: CME FedWatch puts the odds of no change in October at 85.1% (up from 72% just a day ago); Goldman Sachs expects a pause in October and one final hike in December; UBS goes further, forecasting one hike in December and another in March 2027, then stopping.
In plain English: No rate hike in October means some short-term breathing room, but the odds of a December hike are close to 89%. The sword is still hanging overhead.
At the time of writing: $$BTC 81,895 (+1.83%; live TradingView Bitstamp reading at 21:06 CST)
What do you think: Will they raise rates on October 28 or not? 👇
For informational purposes only; not investment advice
This morning (Bangkok time), Fed Chair Warsh chatted with Managing Director Georgieva at the IMF annual meeting. Asked whether the Fed would raise rates at its October 27–28 meeting—
His exact words were: “I do not prejudge meetings.” In plain English: I’m not making predictions about meetings—you can guess for yourselves. The Fed is done with “signaling in advance.”
📌 Three key takeaways
① He acknowledged that after the September rate hike, the economy’s trajectory was “broadly in line with the Fed’s expectations”
② The whole world is tightening, and “there are no free riders”
③ He called AI a “positive supply shock”—building factories is good; price increases are a bump in the road
📊 The market’s reaction says it all: CME FedWatch puts the odds of no change in October at 85.1% (up from 72% just a day ago); Goldman Sachs expects a pause in October and one final hike in December; UBS goes further, forecasting one hike in December and another in March 2027, then stopping.
In plain English: No rate hike in October means some short-term breathing room, but the odds of a December hike are close to 89%. The sword is still hanging overhead.
At the time of writing: $$BTC 81,895 (+1.83%; live TradingView Bitstamp reading at 21:06 CST)
What do you think: Will they raise rates on October 28 or not? 👇
For informational purposes only; not investment advice