This morning’s review: the call was whether $BTC could hold above 82,600. If it fell back below 80,000, I’d admit I was wrong and look back to 79,700.
What happened: It didn’t get above 82,600, so I admitted the first loss at noon. As for 80,000—I pulled up the hourly candlesticks. Since my post, the low was only 81,690, so my invalidation level wasn’t triggered. Both levels are still in play; the current price is 82,257 (24h +1.1%), and the lows are rising. The price action is siding with the bulls.
Warsh: He chose neither hawkish nor dovish. His exact words in Bangkok: “I don’t prejudge meetings. The Fed is no longer in the business of pre-announcing decisions.” Georgieva joked that he’d disappointed half the audience. September PPI, up 1.3% month over month—the biggest increase since March 2022—was right there, but he wouldn’t say another word. At midday, MarketWatch cited CME FedWatch: the odds of a rate hike in October had fallen to just around 13%. All the suspense is now saved for the 10-27/28 FOMC meeting.
My view: The quiet period has begun, the rhetoric is on hold, and only data can move pricing. Two levels to watch from tonight through the weekend: to the upside, holding above 82,600 for four hours confirms a reversal, with 84,100–84,200 in sight (around the 10-14 high); to the downside, a fall back below 80,000 invalidates my view outright, putting 79,700 back in focus. $ETH 2,455 (+3.4%) and $SOL 106.86 (+3.6%) closed near their highs; the short covering isn’t over yet.
When Warsh says, “The Fed is no longer in the business of pre-announcing decisions,” do you read that as hawkish or dovish?
#美联储 #Bitcoin
What happened: It didn’t get above 82,600, so I admitted the first loss at noon. As for 80,000—I pulled up the hourly candlesticks. Since my post, the low was only 81,690, so my invalidation level wasn’t triggered. Both levels are still in play; the current price is 82,257 (24h +1.1%), and the lows are rising. The price action is siding with the bulls.
Warsh: He chose neither hawkish nor dovish. His exact words in Bangkok: “I don’t prejudge meetings. The Fed is no longer in the business of pre-announcing decisions.” Georgieva joked that he’d disappointed half the audience. September PPI, up 1.3% month over month—the biggest increase since March 2022—was right there, but he wouldn’t say another word. At midday, MarketWatch cited CME FedWatch: the odds of a rate hike in October had fallen to just around 13%. All the suspense is now saved for the 10-27/28 FOMC meeting.
My view: The quiet period has begun, the rhetoric is on hold, and only data can move pricing. Two levels to watch from tonight through the weekend: to the upside, holding above 82,600 for four hours confirms a reversal, with 84,100–84,200 in sight (around the 10-14 high); to the downside, a fall back below 80,000 invalidates my view outright, putting 79,700 back in focus. $ETH 2,455 (+3.4%) and $SOL 106.86 (+3.6%) closed near their highs; the short covering isn’t over yet.
When Warsh says, “The Fed is no longer in the business of pre-announcing decisions,” do you read that as hawkish or dovish?
#美联储 #Bitcoin