【In-Depth Analysis】Two Warning Bells for Risk Assets: Index Exclusions + AI Credit Cracks
① New MSCI rules take effect: non-operating companies will be removed from global indexes. Polymarket puts the odds of MicroStrategy being excluded at 92%; Metaplanet is also on the list. The final list will be announced on November 11. If BTC treasury companies like MSTR, which are essentially half-ETFs, get kicked out, the mechanical selling pressure from passive funds should not be underestimated.
② AI credit cracks are widening: CoreWeave’s five-year CDS has surged to a record 1,194.5 basis points, while its 2031 bonds have fallen to 82.75 cents. Deutsche Bank estimates the company faces a financing gap of around $35 billion, and Jensen Huang has explicitly said that NVIDIA will not bail it out. AI debt and crypto risk appetite are closely linked; a blowup could trigger a synchronized sell-off.
③ Structural opportunities remain: A CAKE proposal would cut daily emissions by 69% and direct 88% of fees to LPs, with CZ publicly voicing his support. On-chain RWA on Solana has surged from $700 million to $4.3 billion in a year—real-world adoption is still accelerating.
The tide is turning; let your positioning follow the fundamentals.
NFA | DYOR
#比特币 #MSTR #CoreWeave #PancakeSwap #RWA
① New MSCI rules take effect: non-operating companies will be removed from global indexes. Polymarket puts the odds of MicroStrategy being excluded at 92%; Metaplanet is also on the list. The final list will be announced on November 11. If BTC treasury companies like MSTR, which are essentially half-ETFs, get kicked out, the mechanical selling pressure from passive funds should not be underestimated.
② AI credit cracks are widening: CoreWeave’s five-year CDS has surged to a record 1,194.5 basis points, while its 2031 bonds have fallen to 82.75 cents. Deutsche Bank estimates the company faces a financing gap of around $35 billion, and Jensen Huang has explicitly said that NVIDIA will not bail it out. AI debt and crypto risk appetite are closely linked; a blowup could trigger a synchronized sell-off.
③ Structural opportunities remain: A CAKE proposal would cut daily emissions by 69% and direct 88% of fees to LPs, with CZ publicly voicing his support. On-chain RWA on Solana has surged from $700 million to $4.3 billion in a year—real-world adoption is still accelerating.
The tide is turning; let your positioning follow the fundamentals.
NFA | DYOR
#比特币 #MSTR #CoreWeave #PancakeSwap #RWA