At 9 p.m. yesterday, a wick pierced the 80,000 mark. The market moved as expected. At a time like this, Old Cui doesn’t have much to add; going forward, we basically just need to verify our earlier views. The news and price movements are unlikely to diverge too much. Technically speaking, this wick officially broke through halfway into the second-wave pattern, just as predicted yesterday. The new battle for the range is once again between 8 and 8.3, and the market is gradually moving lower. As for the trading environment, you can keep an eye on Russia’s measures: passing a trading bill and implementing trading mechanisms, while also prohibiting individuals from engaging in crypto trading directly via P2P. Trading will only be allowed on exchanges with proper legal authorization. This approach will likely serve as a reference elsewhere. These measures, in effect, put another set of shackles on the crypto market. You can also give this some serious thought: Is bringing the industry into legal compliance ultimately bullish or bearish for crypto?

When the market is being driven by a clear trend, the key issue to emphasize is risk. I’ve clearly been bearish lately, so if anyone is still unable to make a profit or is stuck in a position, the problem most likely lies with them. Don’t set your profit target too high. Normally, Bitcoin’s profit range should be kept within a move of 1,000–1,500 points, though you can widen it a little near key levels. For example, yesterday’s dip to the 80,000 level was a test: how strong would buying support be, and what potential opponents were there? More than 100 million in capital had built up around 80,000. Once that level breaks, the downtrend will become clear, and a breakdown of this range could send the market straight toward 78,000. For short positions, this means that if the price breaks below 80,000 again in the next move, you can appropriately widen your profit target. This approach applies only to short-term trades; for a mid-term position, do nothing.

Lao Cui’s summary: Keeping up daily updates is an extremely awkward thing to do. When the market moves in the opposite direction, Lao Cui can at least offer everyone some words of comfort. But when the prediction matches the market, there isn’t much to say. A reminder for futures traders: with the current trend, short positions can still make some profit as long as the stop-loss is set above 85,000. Be sure to manage your stop-loss carefully. If the market moves above 85,000, it may still rebound, so don’t enter with a heavy position before the bullish market structure has been completely broken. One thing that sets crypto apart from other financial markets is how easily capital can manipulate it. Its market cap isn’t particularly large, yet it has attracted a giant like BlackRock, which is indeed somewhat unfair to retail traders. There’s not much else to emphasize: risk comes first, returns second. Finally, congratulations to everyone who’s made a profit recently and caught the tail end of the “golden September and silver October” season! The bearish trend is likely to continue from here; the only thing to watch out for is the interest-rate meeting at the end of the month!