Earnings up 68.7%, yet the stock has fallen for two straight days—is all the good news already priced in for TSMC?
TSMC Q3 earnings (official announcement on 10/15): Revenue of NT$1.49424 trillion, up 50.9% year over year; net profit of NT$763.06 billion, up 68.7%; EPS of NT$29.43; gross margin of 66.4% and net margin of 51.1%. Revenue, profit, and EPS all hit record highs, setting new records for six consecutive quarters. 2-nanometer chips already account for 8% of wafer revenue. Q4 revenue guidance is US$52.3–54.3 billion. C.C. Wei said, “There’s no ceiling on profitability,” and the full-year revenue outlook in U.S. dollars was raised to +44%.
But $TSM ADR isn’t buying it at all: down 3.4% on 10/14 to close at $430, then down another 1.8% on 10/15 to close at $422.25, after plunging as low as $407.13 intraday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for seven straight days, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped more than 7% overnight—this is the whole semiconductor/AI capex trade getting “reassessed,” not a TSMC-specific problem.
Current price: $422.25. Resistance above: 430 (10/14 close/short-term neckline), 445 (10/13 gap); support below: 407 (10/15 intraday low), 400 (round-number level).
Scenarios:
- $TSM breaks above 430 on strong volume and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stabilizes → sentiment recovers; first target is filling the gap at 445;
- Breaks below 407 → heads straight for the 400 round-number level as valuation multiples face further pressure;
- Trades between 407 and 430 → wait for the Fed decision on 10/28.
My stance: bearish in the short term—what would prove me wrong: $TSM breaks above 430 on strong volume and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turns positive for two consecutive sessions; I’ll flip bullish immediately. Nothing wrong with the earnings—the problem is that the market is starting to ask, “When will all that AI money actually pay off?”
⚠️Just my personal rambling; not investment advice.
#TSMC #台积电 #半导体 #AI
TSMC Q3 earnings (official announcement on 10/15): Revenue of NT$1.49424 trillion, up 50.9% year over year; net profit of NT$763.06 billion, up 68.7%; EPS of NT$29.43; gross margin of 66.4% and net margin of 51.1%. Revenue, profit, and EPS all hit record highs, setting new records for six consecutive quarters. 2-nanometer chips already account for 8% of wafer revenue. Q4 revenue guidance is US$52.3–54.3 billion. C.C. Wei said, “There’s no ceiling on profitability,” and the full-year revenue outlook in U.S. dollars was raised to +44%.
But $TSM ADR isn’t buying it at all: down 3.4% on 10/14 to close at $430, then down another 1.8% on 10/15 to close at $422.25, after plunging as low as $407.13 intraday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for seven straight days, while South Korea’s Kospi dropped more than 7% overnight—this is the whole semiconductor/AI capex trade getting “reassessed,” not a TSMC-specific problem.
Current price: $422.25. Resistance above: 430 (10/14 close/short-term neckline), 445 (10/13 gap); support below: 407 (10/15 intraday low), 400 (round-number level).
Scenarios:
- $TSM breaks above 430 on strong volume and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stabilizes → sentiment recovers; first target is filling the gap at 445;
- Breaks below 407 → heads straight for the 400 round-number level as valuation multiples face further pressure;
- Trades between 407 and 430 → wait for the Fed decision on 10/28.
My stance: bearish in the short term—what would prove me wrong: $TSM breaks above 430 on strong volume and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index turns positive for two consecutive sessions; I’ll flip bullish immediately. Nothing wrong with the earnings—the problem is that the market is starting to ask, “When will all that AI money actually pay off?”
⚠️Just my personal rambling; not investment advice.
#TSMC #台积电 #半导体 #AI