$INIT That move was pretty brutal.
In 15m, it dumped 3.7%, volume surged to 2.97 times normal, the active trade imbalance was -35.2%, and the buy/sell ratio was 0.48—the selling pressure is genuinely bearing down on price, not just a fakeout wick.
But the interesting thing is OI. Perpetuals were down 0.88% over 15m and 0.87% over 1h, with more than 300,000 U in notional value wiped out. Price down + OI down doesn’t mean new shorts are entering; it looks more like longs deleveraging, stop-losses getting hit, and positions shrinking. In other words, people are exiting, not piling into shorts.
What’s more, the OI anomaly percentile is 98.4%, second-highest across the whole pool, and it’s persisted for several consecutive periods. The closing price has already broken below the lows of the last 20 5m candles, while the funding rate is still in a high percentile compared with recent levels—the more crowded the longs were before, the worse they’re hurting now.
I generally don’t rush to buy the dip in this kind of setup. Until deleveraging is over, any bounce is just an opportunity for trapped holders to sell. I’ll wait for OI to stabilize and the trade imbalance to narrow, then see if a decent structure forms.
At this point, don’t be too quick to act.
In 15m, it dumped 3.7%, volume surged to 2.97 times normal, the active trade imbalance was -35.2%, and the buy/sell ratio was 0.48—the selling pressure is genuinely bearing down on price, not just a fakeout wick.
But the interesting thing is OI. Perpetuals were down 0.88% over 15m and 0.87% over 1h, with more than 300,000 U in notional value wiped out. Price down + OI down doesn’t mean new shorts are entering; it looks more like longs deleveraging, stop-losses getting hit, and positions shrinking. In other words, people are exiting, not piling into shorts.
What’s more, the OI anomaly percentile is 98.4%, second-highest across the whole pool, and it’s persisted for several consecutive periods. The closing price has already broken below the lows of the last 20 5m candles, while the funding rate is still in a high percentile compared with recent levels—the more crowded the longs were before, the worse they’re hurting now.
I generally don’t rush to buy the dip in this kind of setup. Until deleveraging is over, any bounce is just an opportunity for trapped holders to sell. I’ll wait for OI to stabilize and the trade imbalance to narrow, then see if a decent structure forms.
At this point, don’t be too quick to act.