BTC found support near 79,700 with a strong bullish candle. Will it keep falling? Could 75,000 still be in play?
Yesterday, after BTC broke below 80,000, it staged a strong rebound from 79,700, surging on a large bullish candle to a high near 82,600—an almost 3,000-point bounce. I actually mentioned in yesterday’s post that it might rebound to around 83,000 to fill the gap, and that’s exactly what happened. So what comes next—up or down?
First of all, my bearish view hasn’t changed: I still think we could reach 75,000 by the end of the month. A lot of people saw the rebound from 79,700 and started saying it was going up again, heading for 90,000, or that it wouldn’t fall to 75,000. But candlesticks don’t move in a straight line—you have to respect the back-and-forth price action. This is trading, not a bet on being right or wrong. Why have I kept saying BTC could fall to 75,000 before the end of the month, rather than sometime this week or on a specific day? Because it takes time for a market move to play out. Don’t turn bullish just because of a small bounce, or bearish just because of a small dip.
Back to the charts: BTC has been chopping around 82,000, with no clear signals so far. My take is that it either won’t break above 82,600, or it may sweep liquidity around 84,300 before coming back down. That’s about as high as I see it going. In other words, I’m still bearish and still looking for 75,000; the only question is where it turns down from, and that depends on how the market makers play it. If you’re looking to build a longer-term short position, you can scale in gradually—open a position around 82,200 and add near 84,500.
Yesterday, after BTC broke below 80,000, it staged a strong rebound from 79,700, surging on a large bullish candle to a high near 82,600—an almost 3,000-point bounce. I actually mentioned in yesterday’s post that it might rebound to around 83,000 to fill the gap, and that’s exactly what happened. So what comes next—up or down?
First of all, my bearish view hasn’t changed: I still think we could reach 75,000 by the end of the month. A lot of people saw the rebound from 79,700 and started saying it was going up again, heading for 90,000, or that it wouldn’t fall to 75,000. But candlesticks don’t move in a straight line—you have to respect the back-and-forth price action. This is trading, not a bet on being right or wrong. Why have I kept saying BTC could fall to 75,000 before the end of the month, rather than sometime this week or on a specific day? Because it takes time for a market move to play out. Don’t turn bullish just because of a small bounce, or bearish just because of a small dip.
Back to the charts: BTC has been chopping around 82,000, with no clear signals so far. My take is that it either won’t break above 82,600, or it may sweep liquidity around 84,300 before coming back down. That’s about as high as I see it going. In other words, I’m still bearish and still looking for 75,000; the only question is where it turns down from, and that depends on how the market makers play it. If you’re looking to build a longer-term short position, you can scale in gradually—open a position around 82,200 and add near 84,500.