Deciding whether to close out my $MON position now feels worse than that bearish candle at the start of the month. The price is hovering around the $0.023 launch zone, unrealized gains are still intact, but trading volume has shrunk to one-seventh of its October 2 peak. If I sell, I’m afraid I’ll exit right before a breakout; if I keep holding, I’m afraid this is just another round of rotation within the 50% drawdown range.
Viewed in the context of the price action, the 30-day gain of +5.59% is almost a flat line: $0.022 in mid-September, a rally to $0.0338 in early October, then a retreat to $0.023. The price is now at the upper edge of the late-September trading range. Whether the rally can restart depends on volume, not price.
What matters more to me is the trading structure. The early-October surge on heavy volume didn’t follow through, and the price has been drifting down ever since. The fact that $0.023 is holding on lower volume at least suggests there hasn’t been a mass exodus of weak hands. What really needs confirmation is whether volume can climb back above $40M over the next two or three days, while the daily close holds above $0.025.
On the other hand, if it breaks below $0.022 on heavy volume, then that October rally was just a brief spike, with no follow-through in the narrative. The price is still halfway below its ATH, so the margin of safety at this level isn’t as generous as it might seem.
For holders, there’s just one metric to watch next: when the price moves, does volume move too? A volume-backed rally above $0.025 would be a reason to keep holding; a low-volume slide below $0.022 means it’s time to reassess whether this position is worth defending. $MON lacks not just expectations, but also the buying power to push the price back above $0.026.
Viewed in the context of the price action, the 30-day gain of +5.59% is almost a flat line: $0.022 in mid-September, a rally to $0.0338 in early October, then a retreat to $0.023. The price is now at the upper edge of the late-September trading range. Whether the rally can restart depends on volume, not price.
What matters more to me is the trading structure. The early-October surge on heavy volume didn’t follow through, and the price has been drifting down ever since. The fact that $0.023 is holding on lower volume at least suggests there hasn’t been a mass exodus of weak hands. What really needs confirmation is whether volume can climb back above $40M over the next two or three days, while the daily close holds above $0.025.
On the other hand, if it breaks below $0.022 on heavy volume, then that October rally was just a brief spike, with no follow-through in the narrative. The price is still halfway below its ATH, so the margin of safety at this level isn’t as generous as it might seem.
For holders, there’s just one metric to watch next: when the price moves, does volume move too? A volume-backed rally above $0.025 would be a reason to keep holding; a low-volume slide below $0.022 means it’s time to reassess whether this position is worth defending. $MON lacks not just expectations, but also the buying power to push the price back above $0.026.