#美国9月PPI年率升至6.3% $BTC $ZAMA $EWYB
🤔 Honestly, I’m more cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook than I was a few days ago.
A divergence signal has emerged that’s worth watching:
The 10-year US Treasury yield is falling, the dollar is weakening, and gold is rising.
Under normal circumstances, these conditions should favor BTC.
But the market still dipped to around $80,000.
One more key data point: On October 14, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $261 million.
This raises a possibility: perhaps the market right now isn’t trading on “future easing of liquidity,” but on “safe-haven panic.”
There are two reasons why Treasury yields might fall:
✅ Scenario one: Investors are betting on rate cuts, and money is looking to flow into risk assets.
Scenario two: Fear is driving people to snap up Treasuries as a safe haven.
If it’s the latter, falling yields may not be enough to support Bitcoin’s price.
Next, I’ll be watching three key indicators 👀
1️⃣ Can BTC regain and hold the $83,000 level?
2️⃣ Can ETF flows return to sustained net inflows?
3️⃣ If Treasury yields continue to fall, will BTC rebound or remain weak?
Even if macro conditions improve, I’ll stay cautious if buyers still don’t show up.
On the other hand, if more bad news comes along but the price holds firm and money keeps flowing back in, I’ll revise my view.
I’m gradually realizing something:
A true bottom isn’t when everyone thinks the price is really cheap.
It’s when the bad news can no longer scare away the last remaining holders—and I can wait patiently with my funds. ⏳
🤔 Honestly, I’m more cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook than I was a few days ago.
A divergence signal has emerged that’s worth watching:
The 10-year US Treasury yield is falling, the dollar is weakening, and gold is rising.
Under normal circumstances, these conditions should favor BTC.
But the market still dipped to around $80,000.
One more key data point: On October 14, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $261 million.
This raises a possibility: perhaps the market right now isn’t trading on “future easing of liquidity,” but on “safe-haven panic.”
There are two reasons why Treasury yields might fall:
✅ Scenario one: Investors are betting on rate cuts, and money is looking to flow into risk assets.
Scenario two: Fear is driving people to snap up Treasuries as a safe haven.
If it’s the latter, falling yields may not be enough to support Bitcoin’s price.
Next, I’ll be watching three key indicators 👀
1️⃣ Can BTC regain and hold the $83,000 level?
2️⃣ Can ETF flows return to sustained net inflows?
3️⃣ If Treasury yields continue to fall, will BTC rebound or remain weak?
Even if macro conditions improve, I’ll stay cautious if buyers still don’t show up.
On the other hand, if more bad news comes along but the price holds firm and money keeps flowing back in, I’ll revise my view.
I’m gradually realizing something:
A true bottom isn’t when everyone thinks the price is really cheap.
It’s when the bad news can no longer scare away the last remaining holders—and I can wait patiently with my funds. ⏳