I closed out the short position opened at 84,000, and last night the second target at 80,200 was hit too. The whole trade is done.
From entry to exit, I made over 3,800 points.
Even more fortunately, Bitcoin wicked down to a low of 79,800 last night. My take-profit order at 80,200 had just filled, and it immediately turned around and rallied. It’s back at 82,000 now.
A lot of people think that was luck. Actually, I deliberately exited above 80,000, because the reason I opened the trade changed last night.
From start to finish, I was betting on one thing: money is too expensive, so nobody will dare chase Bitcoin higher. U.S. Treasury yields are above 5%, and the Fed is still expected to raise rates. There’d be no buyers to push Bitcoin up.
A figure came out last night called PPI—the prices factories receive for their goods. It came in way above expectations, rising 6.3% year over year, against forecasts of just 5.3%. In theory, this is an inflation signal even worse than CPI, so Bitcoin should have kept falling.
But it didn’t fall very far. It dipped below 80,000 and was immediately bought back up.
The reason is the U.S. stock market. AI stocks have been crashing hard over the past couple of days, wiping out more than a trillion dollars across the sector in a single day. South Korea’s stock market has fallen 20% in seven days. The market is starting to bet on one thing: with stocks in this state, the Fed won’t dare raise rates again.
The odds of a rate hike at the end of the month were 45% the day before yesterday. Last night, they plunged straight to 27%.
That’s why I exited. My trade was based on the idea that money would keep getting more expensive, but the market has already started betting the other way. Once the logic behind a trade weakens, even a great position should be closed. The remaining profit isn’t worth the risk.
The hardest part of trading futures has never been opening a position. It’s knowing why you’re holding it—and when that reason no longer applies.
I’m in no rush to open a new position. With PPI this high, next month’s CPI will likely be hot too, and it’s still unclear whether the Fed will soften its rhetoric. I’ll wait until the direction is clear again before looking for an entry.
#9月CPI $BTC is coming—what’s the outlook for crude oil and U.S. Treasuries?
From entry to exit, I made over 3,800 points.
Even more fortunately, Bitcoin wicked down to a low of 79,800 last night. My take-profit order at 80,200 had just filled, and it immediately turned around and rallied. It’s back at 82,000 now.
A lot of people think that was luck. Actually, I deliberately exited above 80,000, because the reason I opened the trade changed last night.
From start to finish, I was betting on one thing: money is too expensive, so nobody will dare chase Bitcoin higher. U.S. Treasury yields are above 5%, and the Fed is still expected to raise rates. There’d be no buyers to push Bitcoin up.
A figure came out last night called PPI—the prices factories receive for their goods. It came in way above expectations, rising 6.3% year over year, against forecasts of just 5.3%. In theory, this is an inflation signal even worse than CPI, so Bitcoin should have kept falling.
But it didn’t fall very far. It dipped below 80,000 and was immediately bought back up.
The reason is the U.S. stock market. AI stocks have been crashing hard over the past couple of days, wiping out more than a trillion dollars across the sector in a single day. South Korea’s stock market has fallen 20% in seven days. The market is starting to bet on one thing: with stocks in this state, the Fed won’t dare raise rates again.
The odds of a rate hike at the end of the month were 45% the day before yesterday. Last night, they plunged straight to 27%.
That’s why I exited. My trade was based on the idea that money would keep getting more expensive, but the market has already started betting the other way. Once the logic behind a trade weakens, even a great position should be closed. The remaining profit isn’t worth the risk.
The hardest part of trading futures has never been opening a position. It’s knowing why you’re holding it—and when that reason no longer applies.
I’m in no rush to open a new position. With PPI this high, next month’s CPI will likely be hot too, and it’s still unclear whether the Fed will soften its rhetoric. I’ll wait until the direction is clear again before looking for an entry.
#9月CPI $BTC is coming—what’s the outlook for crude oil and U.S. Treasuries?