#美国9月ppi年率升至6.3%
[Old Leek Watch] U.S. PPI surges to 6.3%—$BTC faces another Fed test
U.S. PPI data for September is out, and inflationary pressures were greater than the market expected.
The Producer Price Index rose 6.3% year over year, up from 5.6% in August and the highest level since December 2022. Month over month, it rose 1.3%, far above the market’s prior expectation of around 0.5%.
Breaking it down, energy prices were a major driver of the increase. In September, prices for goods for final demand rose 2.6% month over month, including a 10.8% jump in energy prices. Service prices also rose 0.8%. More notably, the index excluding food, energy, and trade services still increased 0.5% month over month, indicating that price pressures aren’t entirely due to energy.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
The market had been hoping for inflation to cool, creating room for rate cuts. Now, both PPI and the previously released CPI point to persistent pressure, making it harder for the Fed to pivot smoothly toward easing. If rate expectations turn hawkish again, the dollar and Treasury yields could weigh on risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
But a 6.3% reading alone isn’t a reason to turn outright bearish. PPI measures prices at the producer level; it isn’t the same as the inflation consumers ultimately face, nor does it mechanically determine the Fed’s next move. The future direction of energy prices and whether core inflation continues to broaden are also key.
Next, I’ll be watching Treasury yields, the dollar’s trajectory, and how BTC performs near key support levels. If yields keep rising and BTC fails to hold support, the market may have to absorb another wave of pressure. If the news has already been priced in, however, we could see a rebound once the bad news is out.
[Old Leek Watch] U.S. PPI surges to 6.3%—$BTC faces another Fed test
U.S. PPI data for September is out, and inflationary pressures were greater than the market expected.
The Producer Price Index rose 6.3% year over year, up from 5.6% in August and the highest level since December 2022. Month over month, it rose 1.3%, far above the market’s prior expectation of around 0.5%.
Breaking it down, energy prices were a major driver of the increase. In September, prices for goods for final demand rose 2.6% month over month, including a 10.8% jump in energy prices. Service prices also rose 0.8%. More notably, the index excluding food, energy, and trade services still increased 0.5% month over month, indicating that price pressures aren’t entirely due to energy.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
The market had been hoping for inflation to cool, creating room for rate cuts. Now, both PPI and the previously released CPI point to persistent pressure, making it harder for the Fed to pivot smoothly toward easing. If rate expectations turn hawkish again, the dollar and Treasury yields could weigh on risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
But a 6.3% reading alone isn’t a reason to turn outright bearish. PPI measures prices at the producer level; it isn’t the same as the inflation consumers ultimately face, nor does it mechanically determine the Fed’s next move. The future direction of energy prices and whether core inflation continues to broaden are also key.
Next, I’ll be watching Treasury yields, the dollar’s trajectory, and how BTC performs near key support levels. If yields keep rising and BTC fails to hold support, the market may have to absorb another wave of pressure. If the news has already been priced in, however, we could see a rebound once the bad news is out.