BTC briefly fell to 79,800 last night, breaking below 80,393, a level we’d been watching for the past few days. But it rebounded to 82,600 within two hours, and the daily candle closed at 82,246, up a slight 0.7%.
Timeline:
・20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC — U.S. September PPI released: producer prices rose 1.3% month over month, the biggest increase since March 2022; up 6.3% year over year
・21:30 (UTC+8) / 13:30 UTC — After U.S. stocks opened, BTC fell again, hitting a low of 79,800 within 15 minutes
・Over the following two hours, it rebounded to 82,631
Unlike the CPI report two days ago, core CPI didn’t accelerate month over month. But core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, rose from 0.3% to 0.5%. This time, the claim that “inflation is being driven solely by oil prices” is harder to defend.
Two conditions from the previous two posts:
1. 80,393: Price broke below it intraday but didn’t close below it— the lower boundary was pierced and then reclaimed
2. 82,787: The closes on 10/14 and 10/15 were 81,682 and 82,246, respectively, both below this level. Under the rule that “it only counts after two consecutive closes on the same side,” I’m currently treating this level as resistance
One detail on ETH: BTC made a new low last night, but ETH’s overnight low of 2,324 stayed above its morning low of 2,318. It closed the day at 2,442.
What to watch next:
1. If the daily close falls below 80,393, yesterday’s reclaim is invalidated
2. The resistance view is invalidated only if there are two consecutive closes back above 82,787
3. Farside’s 10/15 data is still incomplete (IBIT and ETHA haven’t reported), so I’m not drawing conclusions about flows yet
$BTC $ETH｜Sources: BLS September PPI, Binance BTCUSDT / ETHUSDT candlesticks, Farside (10/15 data incomplete)｜Not investment advice
Timeline:
・20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC — U.S. September PPI released: producer prices rose 1.3% month over month, the biggest increase since March 2022; up 6.3% year over year
・21:30 (UTC+8) / 13:30 UTC — After U.S. stocks opened, BTC fell again, hitting a low of 79,800 within 15 minutes
・Over the following two hours, it rebounded to 82,631
Unlike the CPI report two days ago, core CPI didn’t accelerate month over month. But core PPI, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, rose from 0.3% to 0.5%. This time, the claim that “inflation is being driven solely by oil prices” is harder to defend.
Two conditions from the previous two posts:
1. 80,393: Price broke below it intraday but didn’t close below it— the lower boundary was pierced and then reclaimed
2. 82,787: The closes on 10/14 and 10/15 were 81,682 and 82,246, respectively, both below this level. Under the rule that “it only counts after two consecutive closes on the same side,” I’m currently treating this level as resistance
One detail on ETH: BTC made a new low last night, but ETH’s overnight low of 2,324 stayed above its morning low of 2,318. It closed the day at 2,442.
What to watch next:
1. If the daily close falls below 80,393, yesterday’s reclaim is invalidated
2. The resistance view is invalidated only if there are two consecutive closes back above 82,787
3. Farside’s 10/15 data is still incomplete (IBIT and ETHA haven’t reported), so I’m not drawing conclusions about flows yet
$BTC $ETH｜Sources: BLS September PPI, Binance BTCUSDT / ETHUSDT candlesticks, Farside (10/15 data incomplete)｜Not investment advice