U.S. September PPI came in last night at 6.3% year over year, versus expectations of 5.3%—the highest since December 2022. Core PPI was up 5.0% year over year, versus expectations of 4.4%; month over month, it rose 1.3% against expectations of 0.3%, the biggest monthly increase in four and a half years.
According to the usual script, data this hot should have pushed rate-hike expectations higher. The opposite happened.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell instead of rising, dropping from 5.36% after Wednesday’s CPI report to around 5.06%. On CME FedWatch, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in October fell instead of rising, sliding from nearly 45% on Wednesday to just over 30%.
Meanwhile, crypto rose: $BTC rebounded from a post-data low of 79,800 to 82,634, up 3.55%; it’s now at 82,337.
Last night, $930 million was liquidated, including $780 million in long positions—about 80% of the total. Longs were the ones washed out, yet longs were still there to carry the rebound.
The data I’m looking at points to the same thing: the share of long accounts across the $BTC market fell from 64.0% last night to 60.0%, while the price rose 3.5%. Yesterday I wrote, “It’s dangerous when longs refuse to give up.” Today, they gave up 4 percentage points, and the price went up instead.
The hottest inflation data lowered rate-hike expectations and lifted crypto. The pricing anchor is no longer “inflation → rate hikes,” but debt itself—the scale of bond issuance driven by AI capital spending is making Treasuries a safe haven again.
This is a new pricing dynamic, but there’s no guarantee it will still hold tomorrow.
Do you think bonds’ safe-haven appeal outweighed inflation, or is this rebound simply a correction after being oversold?
#CPI #BTC #PPI
This is not investment advice.
According to the usual script, data this hot should have pushed rate-hike expectations higher. The opposite happened.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell instead of rising, dropping from 5.36% after Wednesday’s CPI report to around 5.06%. On CME FedWatch, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in October fell instead of rising, sliding from nearly 45% on Wednesday to just over 30%.
Meanwhile, crypto rose: $BTC rebounded from a post-data low of 79,800 to 82,634, up 3.55%; it’s now at 82,337.
Last night, $930 million was liquidated, including $780 million in long positions—about 80% of the total. Longs were the ones washed out, yet longs were still there to carry the rebound.
The data I’m looking at points to the same thing: the share of long accounts across the $BTC market fell from 64.0% last night to 60.0%, while the price rose 3.5%. Yesterday I wrote, “It’s dangerous when longs refuse to give up.” Today, they gave up 4 percentage points, and the price went up instead.
The hottest inflation data lowered rate-hike expectations and lifted crypto. The pricing anchor is no longer “inflation → rate hikes,” but debt itself—the scale of bond issuance driven by AI capital spending is making Treasuries a safe haven again.
This is a new pricing dynamic, but there’s no guarantee it will still hold tomorrow.
Do you think bonds’ safe-haven appeal outweighed inflation, or is this rebound simply a correction after being oversold?
#CPI #BTC #PPI
This is not investment advice.