👀 The Fed Chair is at "war" with his own officials—and they’re fighting over whether to keep the dot plot
Reuters reported on Oct. 15: Fed Chair Warsh is pushing hard for "less talk, more action"—removing forward guidance from post-meeting statements and setting up a working group that’s widely expected to recommend scrapping the quarterly dot plot by year-end (the chart of rate forecasts that moves markets after every policy meeting).
In other words: The Fed used to be a "spoiler," telling markets in advance where rates were headed. Warsh wants to turn it into a "mystery box," leaving markets to guess based on the data.
But his colleagues are pushing right back—
Over 40 public appearances in the past few weeks, with New York Fed President Williams, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Governor Waller taking turns, have managed to rein in traders’ aggressive rate-hike bets.
Cleveland Fed President Hammack was the bluntest: "Would saying nothing help the public make better decisions? I’m all ears, but that argument is really hard to make."
The backdrop is scorching: September CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7% year over year. Whether the Fed hikes rates at its Oct. 28 meeting is now a coin toss.
Warsh speaks today at 11:30 (Beijing time) at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok—the last signal before the policy meeting.
$BTC is currently at $82,309 (+0.22%, live reading from TradingView Bitstamp at 08:37). For now, the market is pretending it didn’t hear a thing.
Do you think the dot plot should stay or go? Pick a side in the comments 👇
For informational purposes only; not investment advice
Reuters reported on Oct. 15: Fed Chair Warsh is pushing hard for "less talk, more action"—removing forward guidance from post-meeting statements and setting up a working group that’s widely expected to recommend scrapping the quarterly dot plot by year-end (the chart of rate forecasts that moves markets after every policy meeting).
In other words: The Fed used to be a "spoiler," telling markets in advance where rates were headed. Warsh wants to turn it into a "mystery box," leaving markets to guess based on the data.
But his colleagues are pushing right back—
Over 40 public appearances in the past few weeks, with New York Fed President Williams, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Governor Waller taking turns, have managed to rein in traders’ aggressive rate-hike bets.
Cleveland Fed President Hammack was the bluntest: "Would saying nothing help the public make better decisions? I’m all ears, but that argument is really hard to make."
The backdrop is scorching: September CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7% year over year. Whether the Fed hikes rates at its Oct. 28 meeting is now a coin toss.
Warsh speaks today at 11:30 (Beijing time) at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok—the last signal before the policy meeting.
$BTC is currently at $82,309 (+0.22%, live reading from TradingView Bitstamp at 08:37). For now, the market is pretending it didn’t hear a thing.
Do you think the dot plot should stay or go? Pick a side in the comments 👇
For informational purposes only; not investment advice