【SOL is repeating its 2021 playbook—have you noticed?】
I’ve seen this before, during the rally in December 2017.
LTC’s technicals were looking explosive too. News about the Lightning Network launch was everywhere, and the price tripled in a month. Market sentiment was just like SOL’s FNG 63 today—not crazy, but optimistic enough.
And then? Then came two years of a slow decline.
SOL’s situation is tricky right now. Technically, the Alpenglow upgrade is genuinely impressive. The 150-millisecond finality upgrade, scheduled for October 21, is a step in the right direction. It can lower validation costs and has real potential for large-scale applications.
But the problem isn’t the technology itself.
The problem is this: when positive tech news coincides with an FNG of 63, an unusual surge in trading volume, and a price sitting right at the edge of the 98.97–108.46 trading range, all three together often make for a short-term top.
From a business perspective, can Solana’s upgrade actually work in practice? Yes. 150-millisecond finality addresses real needs in high-frequency trading and payments; it’s not just a slide in a presentation. But putting it into practice takes time—not just a couple of months.
And the market never gives you time.
Who will be affected? Leveraged long positions first, then retail traders chasing the price, and finally the true believers who think positive tech news will pay off immediately.
I’m not saying SOL is about to crash, but at this level, I’m choosing not to go in unhedged.
How much of your portfolio is exposed right now? Have you hedged?
I’ve seen this before, during the rally in December 2017.
LTC’s technicals were looking explosive too. News about the Lightning Network launch was everywhere, and the price tripled in a month. Market sentiment was just like SOL’s FNG 63 today—not crazy, but optimistic enough.
And then? Then came two years of a slow decline.
SOL’s situation is tricky right now. Technically, the Alpenglow upgrade is genuinely impressive. The 150-millisecond finality upgrade, scheduled for October 21, is a step in the right direction. It can lower validation costs and has real potential for large-scale applications.
But the problem isn’t the technology itself.
The problem is this: when positive tech news coincides with an FNG of 63, an unusual surge in trading volume, and a price sitting right at the edge of the 98.97–108.46 trading range, all three together often make for a short-term top.
From a business perspective, can Solana’s upgrade actually work in practice? Yes. 150-millisecond finality addresses real needs in high-frequency trading and payments; it’s not just a slide in a presentation. But putting it into practice takes time—not just a couple of months.
And the market never gives you time.
Who will be affected? Leveraged long positions first, then retail traders chasing the price, and finally the true believers who think positive tech news will pay off immediately.
I’m not saying SOL is about to crash, but at this level, I’m choosing not to go in unhedged.
How much of your portfolio is exposed right now? Have you hedged?