October 15 Market Recap: Korean stocks hit a circuit breaker, PPI runs hot at 6.3% year over year; BTC dipped to 79,800 intraday, then made a V-shaped recovery, but closed below the bottom of its range for a second straight day
【Market Overview】
- “BTC 82,246” +0.69%; high 82,634 (October 16, 01:00 Beijing time), low 79,800 (during the 21:00 hour on October 15; perpetuals at 79,732, the lowest since September 18)
- Closed 317 below the 82,563 range floor: the fourth October close below it (October 8, 12, 14, and 15), and the first time it has closed below it two days in a row. It recovered above the floor the day after each of the previous three instances. During the 06:00 hour on October 16, it briefly reached 82,588, then fell back in the final hour
- Four phases of the day: ① 10:22–10:28, ETH led a cascade of long liquidations in the early Asian session; BTC wicked down to 80,226 and recovered within half an hour. Long liquidations across the market totaled $285 million that hour (ETH $122 million, BTC $65 million) ② At 20:30, PPI was released, sending BTC down to 80,520 in five minutes ③ During 21:00–22:00, BTC tested the lows at 79,800; another $33.1 million in longs were liquidated that hour ④ From 22:00–00:00, Treasury yields fell and U.S. stocks turned higher; BTC climbed back above 82,000 in two hours, liquidating $33.4 million in shorts
- Binance liquidations for the full day: $383 million in longs / $73.6 million in shorts; BTC longs $88.4 million / shorts $19.9 million
- Perpetual open interest: 94,329 BTC at 07:00 on the 16th (93,117 at 08:00 on the 15th); funding rate turned positive, settling at +0.0054% at 08:00 on the 16th
- Fear & Greed Index: 63, Greed; previous reading 53
【September PPI, 20:30 Beijing time】
- Final demand rose 1.3% month over month (August: +0.5%) and 6.3% year over year (August: +5.6%); core (excluding food and energy) rose 0.7% month over month and 5.0% year over year
- Energy rose 10.8% month over month and 35.5% year over year; oil was still the main driver
- Kalshi priced in a 30¢ chance of a rate hike in October, about the same as on the morning of the 15th. The hotter-than-expected data did not push rate-hike pricing higher
【Stocks】
- U.S. stocks: S&P 500 +0.33% (7,744.1), Nasdaq +0.08% (26,713.0), Dow +1.08% (52,177.7); Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −0.88% (11,581.2), down for a third straight day and −7.9% from its October 9 close; VIX 16.46. Money shifted out of semiconductors and into Dow components
- MSTR +5.6% (151.3), COIN +6.3% (183.8)
- Asia: KOSPI −7.57% (5,554), triggering a circuit breaker after falling 9.05% intraday; down 20.7% over seven consecutive sessions and 39% below its June high. Samsung −9.5%, SK Hynix −11.1%; Nikkei −4.9%, Taiwan stocks −3.4%, Shanghai Composite −1.6%, Hang Seng −1.0%
【Treasuries and Macro】
- 10-year yield 5.09% (previously 5.19%), 30-year 5.43% (previously 5.53%), 5-year 4.90% (previously 4.99%); 2-year 4.77% (Treasury Department figure, previously 4.82%). Despite hot inflation data, Treasuries rallied sharply. Reports attributed this to safe-haven buying amid concerns about AI-related credit risks; this has not been verified firsthand, so no attribution is made
- Gold futures 4,178 (+1.7%); WTI 96.2 (+1.1%), Brent 105.7 (−0.3%); U.S. Dollar Index 102.05 (previously 102.55)
- U.S. spot BTC ETFs (Farside): after October 14 figures were updated, outflows were $261 million; cumulative outflows for October through the 14th were about $537 million. IBIT data for the 15th is still missing
【Altcoins】
- Nearly 100 USDT pairs with trading volume above $5 million: median gain +0.9%, 70% rose, and around 20 gained more than 5%
- ETH 2,442.1 (+0.8%), SOL 105.44 (+1.1%), XRP +0.2%, BNB −0.1%, DOGE −0.9%, HYPE +1.1%, UNI +3.3% (7.43), “ZEC +6.4%” (1,221), “$NEAR +7.8%” (5.26), ENA +4.7%, LINK +0.2%, AVAX +0.2%, “$STRK +12.6%” (0.0867), QNT −0.3%
- Top gainers: BAT +25.3%, INJ +11.4%, ZRO +10.3%, PYTH +9.5%; top losers: EPIC −17.6% (to be delisted on October 28), WAL −13.1%. The reasons have not been verified firsthand, so no attribution is made
【Seven Bull-Market Confirmations】2/7, not triggered (readings through October 14)
【What to Watch】BTC has closed below 82,563 for two straight days; first, watch whether 79,732 holds. Can the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stop falling? Will foreign investors in the KOSPI stop selling?
【Market Overview】
- “BTC 82,246” +0.69%; high 82,634 (October 16, 01:00 Beijing time), low 79,800 (during the 21:00 hour on October 15; perpetuals at 79,732, the lowest since September 18)
- Closed 317 below the 82,563 range floor: the fourth October close below it (October 8, 12, 14, and 15), and the first time it has closed below it two days in a row. It recovered above the floor the day after each of the previous three instances. During the 06:00 hour on October 16, it briefly reached 82,588, then fell back in the final hour
- Four phases of the day: ① 10:22–10:28, ETH led a cascade of long liquidations in the early Asian session; BTC wicked down to 80,226 and recovered within half an hour. Long liquidations across the market totaled $285 million that hour (ETH $122 million, BTC $65 million) ② At 20:30, PPI was released, sending BTC down to 80,520 in five minutes ③ During 21:00–22:00, BTC tested the lows at 79,800; another $33.1 million in longs were liquidated that hour ④ From 22:00–00:00, Treasury yields fell and U.S. stocks turned higher; BTC climbed back above 82,000 in two hours, liquidating $33.4 million in shorts
- Binance liquidations for the full day: $383 million in longs / $73.6 million in shorts; BTC longs $88.4 million / shorts $19.9 million
- Perpetual open interest: 94,329 BTC at 07:00 on the 16th (93,117 at 08:00 on the 15th); funding rate turned positive, settling at +0.0054% at 08:00 on the 16th
- Fear & Greed Index: 63, Greed; previous reading 53
【September PPI, 20:30 Beijing time】
- Final demand rose 1.3% month over month (August: +0.5%) and 6.3% year over year (August: +5.6%); core (excluding food and energy) rose 0.7% month over month and 5.0% year over year
- Energy rose 10.8% month over month and 35.5% year over year; oil was still the main driver
- Kalshi priced in a 30¢ chance of a rate hike in October, about the same as on the morning of the 15th. The hotter-than-expected data did not push rate-hike pricing higher
【Stocks】
- U.S. stocks: S&P 500 +0.33% (7,744.1), Nasdaq +0.08% (26,713.0), Dow +1.08% (52,177.7); Philadelphia Semiconductor Index −0.88% (11,581.2), down for a third straight day and −7.9% from its October 9 close; VIX 16.46. Money shifted out of semiconductors and into Dow components
- MSTR +5.6% (151.3), COIN +6.3% (183.8)
- Asia: KOSPI −7.57% (5,554), triggering a circuit breaker after falling 9.05% intraday; down 20.7% over seven consecutive sessions and 39% below its June high. Samsung −9.5%, SK Hynix −11.1%; Nikkei −4.9%, Taiwan stocks −3.4%, Shanghai Composite −1.6%, Hang Seng −1.0%
【Treasuries and Macro】
- 10-year yield 5.09% (previously 5.19%), 30-year 5.43% (previously 5.53%), 5-year 4.90% (previously 4.99%); 2-year 4.77% (Treasury Department figure, previously 4.82%). Despite hot inflation data, Treasuries rallied sharply. Reports attributed this to safe-haven buying amid concerns about AI-related credit risks; this has not been verified firsthand, so no attribution is made
- Gold futures 4,178 (+1.7%); WTI 96.2 (+1.1%), Brent 105.7 (−0.3%); U.S. Dollar Index 102.05 (previously 102.55)
- U.S. spot BTC ETFs (Farside): after October 14 figures were updated, outflows were $261 million; cumulative outflows for October through the 14th were about $537 million. IBIT data for the 15th is still missing
【Altcoins】
- Nearly 100 USDT pairs with trading volume above $5 million: median gain +0.9%, 70% rose, and around 20 gained more than 5%
- ETH 2,442.1 (+0.8%), SOL 105.44 (+1.1%), XRP +0.2%, BNB −0.1%, DOGE −0.9%, HYPE +1.1%, UNI +3.3% (7.43), “ZEC +6.4%” (1,221), “$NEAR +7.8%” (5.26), ENA +4.7%, LINK +0.2%, AVAX +0.2%, “$STRK +12.6%” (0.0867), QNT −0.3%
- Top gainers: BAT +25.3%, INJ +11.4%, ZRO +10.3%, PYTH +9.5%; top losers: EPIC −17.6% (to be delisted on October 28), WAL −13.1%. The reasons have not been verified firsthand, so no attribution is made
【Seven Bull-Market Confirmations】2/7, not triggered (readings through October 14)
【What to Watch】BTC has closed below 82,563 for two straight days; first, watch whether 79,732 holds. Can the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stop falling? Will foreign investors in the KOSPI stop selling?