Reports say MSCI is considering removing Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy and Metaplanet from its global indexes, on the grounds that they are “non-operating” companies. JPMorgan estimates that funds tracking these indexes could be forced to sell $2.8 billion worth of MSTR; if other index providers follow suit, total outflows could reach $8.8 billion. The outcome is expected to be clear around October 16, with implementation no earlier than November 30.
My personal view is that the core issue here isn’t whether Bitcoin itself goes up or down, but that the valuation logic behind the “treasury stock” model is being reexamined. These companies acquire crypto by issuing debt or new shares. Essentially, they package leveraged exposure as stocks and sell it to passive funds. If passive capital is forced to exit, it’s stock liquidity that takes the hit—not spot Bitcoin holdings. So even if MSTR is sold off sharply, that doesn’t mean long-term on-chain holders will follow suit and sell. The two markets aren’t as tightly linked as people might think.
Of course, this view could be wrong if the market interprets this event as a “crisis of confidence in the treasury model.” That sentiment could spill over into spot markets and prompt leveraged investors to collectively reduce risk—in which case, the volatility wouldn’t be limited to stocks.
Turning back to $BTC itself: as of 07:00, the current price is 82450, up 1.0% over 24 hours, but it’s still below the daily MA7 and MA25, suggesting the rebound is not particularly strong. The daily RSI14 is at 50, in neutral territory, with no clear overbought or oversold signal. It’s at the 60% mark of its 30-day range, indicating that the market is still in a choppy recovery phase. At this point, external index-related news is more likely to amplify short-term sentiment swings, so it’s worth watching for a few more days before drawing conclusions.
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#MSCI剔除财库股 #BTC
My personal view is that the core issue here isn’t whether Bitcoin itself goes up or down, but that the valuation logic behind the “treasury stock” model is being reexamined. These companies acquire crypto by issuing debt or new shares. Essentially, they package leveraged exposure as stocks and sell it to passive funds. If passive capital is forced to exit, it’s stock liquidity that takes the hit—not spot Bitcoin holdings. So even if MSTR is sold off sharply, that doesn’t mean long-term on-chain holders will follow suit and sell. The two markets aren’t as tightly linked as people might think.
Of course, this view could be wrong if the market interprets this event as a “crisis of confidence in the treasury model.” That sentiment could spill over into spot markets and prompt leveraged investors to collectively reduce risk—in which case, the volatility wouldn’t be limited to stocks.
Turning back to $BTC itself: as of 07:00, the current price is 82450, up 1.0% over 24 hours, but it’s still below the daily MA7 and MA25, suggesting the rebound is not particularly strong. The daily RSI14 is at 50, in neutral territory, with no clear overbought or oversold signal. It’s at the 60% mark of its 30-day range, indicating that the market is still in a choppy recovery phase. At this point, external index-related news is more likely to amplify short-term sentiment swings, so it’s worth watching for a few more days before drawing conclusions.
The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#MSCI剔除财库股 #BTC