Many optimistic charts about the future price of Bitcoin (BTC) are currently circulating. But beyond the lofty price targets, a very important technical indicator is drawing attention on the monthly timeframe: the MACD momentum indicator.
According to the latest technical data, the momentum indicator is beginning to rise again after spending a long time below the zero line. If this bullish crossover is confirmed, it would signal a major new shift in Bitcoin’s long-term price action. Despite the importance of these early signals, we should remember that the beginning of a shift does not necessarily guarantee an immediate price surge.
A look at the monthly MACD indicator
Historically, Bitcoin’s strongest rallies have occurred after prolonged downtrends ended and buyers gradually began to take control. Using the monthly timeframe here is a major advantage, as it filters out the rapid, misleading fluctuations seen on shorter timeframes.
However, it is too early to conclude that this bullish scenario has fully materialized. This requires watching for the MACD line to rise and clearly cross above the signal line, the histogram bars to turn green, and consecutive monthly candle closes to confirm this momentum.
In summary: If this technical crossover materializes and coincides with a general improvement in price structure, the chances of entering a broad bullish wave will be very strong and worth watching closely.
Is BTC really capable of reaching the $160K–$180K range?
This price range remains a possibility as an optimistic bullish scenario, not a guaranteed target. Looking at previous price movements, Bitcoin surpassed $126,000 in late 2025 before entering a deep correction. By the last quarter of 2026, it had managed to recover and trade around $80,000–$85,000, amid challenges related to the global economy and demand from major institutions.
Accordingly, the success of the next move depends directly on three key factors:
1. Breaking through resistance zones: The market needs to build a strong price base, break through key resistance levels, and hold above them. Brief, false breakouts are not enough to establish an uptrend.
2. Genuine liquidity inflows (spot market): Although ETFs provide support, these inflows need to be sustained and consistent, especially as recent reports point to the possibility of declining institutional demand even if prices remain stable.
3. Global liquidity conditions: Traders often overlook the impact of overall liquidity. Positive technical indicators may weaken if markets face tighter liquidity, rising interest rates and bond yields, or a stronger U.S. dollar.
Scenarios for Bitcoin’s next move
To develop a clear strategy without being swayed by emotion, the potential paths can be summarized in three conditional scenarios:
• Bullish scenario: If MACD momentum is confirmed and resistance levels are broken on genuine demand, the first stop would be $100,000, followed by the $120,000–$130,000 zone. If the price manages to stabilize above the previous peak, the $160,000–$180,000 range becomes a very plausible target for an extended move.
• Sideways (neutral) scenario: Momentum improves to the upside, but there is not enough strength to break through resistance, keeping the price within a narrow range. In this case, waiting is the best option until the trend is confirmed.
• Bearish scenario: The MACD fails to achieve a bullish crossover and current support levels are lost, invalidating the bullish thesis and opening the door to further price corrections.
Ultimately, technical analysis is a tool for assessing probabilities, not a source of guarantees. The biggest mistake is to place trades based on expectations without waiting for confirmation from indicators and managing risk strictly.
Disclaimer: This content is a technical analysis of potential market scenarios and does not constitute financial or investment advice in any way.