PPI update: Energy drove the price surge, but rate-hike odds didn’t rise further
Core PPI rose 5.0% year over year (vs. 4.4% expected), also far above forecasts. Energy was the main driver of this round of price increases: energy prices rose 10.8% for the month, and gasoline prices climbed 20.3%, accounting for roughly half of the increase in goods prices. Food prices also rose 1.2% (BLS, via Barron's).
September retail sales rose 0.8% (vs. 0.3% expected), but the increase was mainly driven by higher gasoline prices. Spending elsewhere was lackluster, while real wages continued to fall (Reuters).
Taken together, the picture is “business costs are rising while consumers are still spending”—leaving little hope for inflation to cool. One curious point: the odds of a rate hike in October didn’t rise further, holding at around one in three (LSEG: 29%; CME: about 33.8%), essentially unchanged from before the PPI release. The market appears unconvinced the Fed will act in October, with bets concentrated on December (MarketWatch).
FBI and Brooklyn prosecutors take down 241 cryptocurrency scam websites
Authorities seized 112 servers and recovered about $300,000; no one has been arrested so far. The case spanned three years: an Eastern European scam network targeted Russian speakers in the U.S. through Russian-language Facebook ads, posing as investment advisers to lure victims into buying cryptocurrency and transferring it to fake platforms. When victims tried to withdraw their money, the scammers locked their accounts or demanded “taxes.” They also pretended to “help recover” the funds as part of a second scam.
Core PPI rose 5.0% year over year (vs. 4.4% expected), also far above forecasts. Energy was the main driver of this round of price increases: energy prices rose 10.8% for the month, and gasoline prices climbed 20.3%, accounting for roughly half of the increase in goods prices. Food prices also rose 1.2% (BLS, via Barron's).
September retail sales rose 0.8% (vs. 0.3% expected), but the increase was mainly driven by higher gasoline prices. Spending elsewhere was lackluster, while real wages continued to fall (Reuters).
Taken together, the picture is “business costs are rising while consumers are still spending”—leaving little hope for inflation to cool. One curious point: the odds of a rate hike in October didn’t rise further, holding at around one in three (LSEG: 29%; CME: about 33.8%), essentially unchanged from before the PPI release. The market appears unconvinced the Fed will act in October, with bets concentrated on December (MarketWatch).
FBI and Brooklyn prosecutors take down 241 cryptocurrency scam websites
Authorities seized 112 servers and recovered about $300,000; no one has been arrested so far. The case spanned three years: an Eastern European scam network targeted Russian speakers in the U.S. through Russian-language Facebook ads, posing as investment advisers to lure victims into buying cryptocurrency and transferring it to fake platforms. When victims tried to withdraw their money, the scammers locked their accounts or demanded “taxes.” They also pretended to “help recover” the funds as part of a second scam.