The chairman told everyone, “Don’t watch the referees—watch the ball.” The result? A whole lineup of referees taking turns blowing their whistles.
Discussion of the #1 trending topic, #WarshPushesToScaleBackForwardGuidanceAndDotPlot , surged to nearly 500 overnight—the topic was the same, but the details were new. During the Powell era, the Fed was one of the most outspoken institutions in the market. Since Warsh took over, he has shifted it into “need-to-know” mode: the first policy statement was only about 130 words, compared with the usual 300-plus under his predecessor. UBS estimates that just 5% of Warsh’s first press conference was directly related to monetary policy, versus 27% under his predecessor. Some on Wall Street have even created WarshGPT, specifically to analyze his scarce public remarks.
But a quiet chairman doesn’t mean a quiet Fed. According to Reuters, since the rate hike in September, other officials have made more than 40 public appearances—speeches, interviews, and comments—repeatedly cooling expectations for further hikes. After September’s CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, traders were once again pricing in a coin toss on whether rates would rise in October.
That’s the Warsh paradox: the less guidance there is, the more weight every remaining word carries. With the microphones collectively muted, the market scrutinizes every public appearance by an official, and repricing day by day has become the norm. The bigger uncertainty lies ahead: Warsh may even scrap the quarterly projections for the path of interest rates—the dot plot. If that happens, the market won’t even get “a decent new forecast”; instead, it will face a much wider range of possibilities, pushing hedging costs and term premiums even higher.
$BTC has been hovering around $80,000 these past couple of days. Put simply, it’s waiting for this coin to land ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. In the guidance vacuum era, data days are volatility days.
#WarshPushesToScaleBackForwardGuidanceAndDotPlot
#美联储 #RateHike
The above does not constitute investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.
Discussion of the #1 trending topic, #WarshPushesToScaleBackForwardGuidanceAndDotPlot , surged to nearly 500 overnight—the topic was the same, but the details were new. During the Powell era, the Fed was one of the most outspoken institutions in the market. Since Warsh took over, he has shifted it into “need-to-know” mode: the first policy statement was only about 130 words, compared with the usual 300-plus under his predecessor. UBS estimates that just 5% of Warsh’s first press conference was directly related to monetary policy, versus 27% under his predecessor. Some on Wall Street have even created WarshGPT, specifically to analyze his scarce public remarks.
But a quiet chairman doesn’t mean a quiet Fed. According to Reuters, since the rate hike in September, other officials have made more than 40 public appearances—speeches, interviews, and comments—repeatedly cooling expectations for further hikes. After September’s CPI came in at 3.7% year over year, traders were once again pricing in a coin toss on whether rates would rise in October.
That’s the Warsh paradox: the less guidance there is, the more weight every remaining word carries. With the microphones collectively muted, the market scrutinizes every public appearance by an official, and repricing day by day has become the norm. The bigger uncertainty lies ahead: Warsh may even scrap the quarterly projections for the path of interest rates—the dot plot. If that happens, the market won’t even get “a decent new forecast”; instead, it will face a much wider range of possibilities, pushing hedging costs and term premiums even higher.
$BTC has been hovering around $80,000 these past couple of days. Put simply, it’s waiting for this coin to land ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. In the guidance vacuum era, data days are volatility days.
#WarshPushesToScaleBackForwardGuidanceAndDotPlot
#美联储 #RateHike
The above does not constitute investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.