$TRUMP
$XAU Urgent: Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates 3 times through March 2027 following inflation data
December: A 25-basis-point hike is expected following an inflation report that came in higher than expected.
October: Rates are expected to remain unchanged, partly because the meeting (October 27–28) is so close to the November 3 midterm elections—six days afterward—while the December 9 meeting comes about 36 days after the elections.
Stocks: Expected to remain resilient despite higher rates, with the possibility of short-term volatility due to election uncertainty.
Note: We are conveying the analyst’s view as stated. It is an analyst’s estimate, not the Fed’s position; the Fed makes the decision.
UBS: Third hike in March 2027
Forecast: UBS Wealth Management now expects three hikes in total: September 2026 (which has happened), December 2026, and March 2027, followed by a hold through late 2027. Previously, it had expected the tightening cycle to end in December.
Reason: U.S. economist Andrew Dubinsky said that “the combination of strong goods inflation and strong services inflation” supports a longer period of Fed tightening. The firm says the longer cycle aims to keep inflation expectations anchored while inflation remains near 3%.
UBS inflation reading: CPI rose 0.65% month over month and 3.7% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.33% month over month and 2.6% year over year—well above the 0.2% forecast for the second consecutive month, according to the text. Energy drove most of the headline increase: gasoline rose about 9.5% amid concerns about Middle East supply, contributing around 40 basis points of the 65
$XAU Urgent: Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates 3 times through March 2027 following inflation data
December: A 25-basis-point hike is expected following an inflation report that came in higher than expected.
October: Rates are expected to remain unchanged, partly because the meeting (October 27–28) is so close to the November 3 midterm elections—six days afterward—while the December 9 meeting comes about 36 days after the elections.
Stocks: Expected to remain resilient despite higher rates, with the possibility of short-term volatility due to election uncertainty.
Note: We are conveying the analyst’s view as stated. It is an analyst’s estimate, not the Fed’s position; the Fed makes the decision.
UBS: Third hike in March 2027
Forecast: UBS Wealth Management now expects three hikes in total: September 2026 (which has happened), December 2026, and March 2027, followed by a hold through late 2027. Previously, it had expected the tightening cycle to end in December.
Reason: U.S. economist Andrew Dubinsky said that “the combination of strong goods inflation and strong services inflation” supports a longer period of Fed tightening. The firm says the longer cycle aims to keep inflation expectations anchored while inflation remains near 3%.
UBS inflation reading: CPI rose 0.65% month over month and 3.7% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.33% month over month and 2.6% year over year—well above the 0.2% forecast for the second consecutive month, according to the text. Energy drove most of the headline increase: gasoline rose about 9.5% amid concerns about Middle East supply, contributing around 40 basis points of the 65