SNDK at $1,310: a golden buying opportunity or a bottomless pit?
From $2,354 to $1,310—halved in a month. Everyone is saying, “Chinese memory makers are about to upend the whole industry.” But just moments ago, the RSI dropped into oversold territory, while S&P raised its rating to BBB. So what is this: a golden opportunity in AI memory, or the first domino in a cycle that’s peaking?
First, the surface story: the stock has been crushed, but some buyers are quietly stepping in.
It fell 15–20% in a week, then dropped another 6–8% today. The 52-week high was $2,354; now it’s been cut in half. Trading volume is huge, and the funding rate is still positive—which means the bulls aren’t completely dead yet, while the bears are still collecting rent.
The price has fallen below all short-term moving averages. The MACD has formed a bearish death cross, with consecutive down days, and the RSI at 28–35 is in oversold territory. A technical bounce could come at any time, but the trend is already flat on its back.
First issue: the market is selling first and asking questions later over the “the Chinese are coming” story.
CXMT has made breakthroughs in DRAM, there are rumors about NAND, and YMTC’s NAND market share is also growing. The moment the market hears “Chinese capacity,” the entire memory sector gets spooked—Micron and SK Hynix are getting hit too.
But SNDK’s core business is NAND flash and enterprise SSDs, not DRAM. CXMT makes DRAM, so it isn’t in direct competition with SNDK to the same extent.
Second issue: demand for AI storage hasn’t gone away.
SNDK is a pure-play NAND company spun off from Western Digital. FY2026 revenue was $20.2 billion, up a whopping 175% year over year, with net income of $11.4 billion. Its gross margin at one point topped 80%. Its enterprise and data-center businesses are growing extremely fast; it has a data-storage partnership with Meta, and long-term contracts and prepayments provide revenue visibility.
S&P raised its rating to BBB, citing strong cash flow. The analyst consensus price target is $2,100–$2,200, with some targets above $2,400.
But if that’s the case, why has the stock fallen from $2,354 to $1,310?
Because the market is betting that the memory cycle has peaked, that Chinese capacity will erode pricing power, and that AI capital spending isn’t sustainable.
Third issue: the October 29 earnings report is make-or-break.
For Q1 FY2027, the market expects EPS of about $46 and revenue of about $10.6 billion. The company has beaten expectations by a wide margin in each of the past few quarters.
If earnings beat expectations and guidance is strong → the market realizes the “China scare” was a false alarm → a quick recovery to $1,500–$1,800
If pricing slows or guidance is cautious → the cycle peak is confirmed → a further sharp decline, testing $1,000–$1,200
What you’re buying right now isn’t a stock—it’s a lottery ticket ahead of earnings.
From $2,354 to $1,310—halved in a month. Everyone is saying, “Chinese memory makers are about to upend the whole industry.” But just moments ago, the RSI dropped into oversold territory, while S&P raised its rating to BBB. So what is this: a golden opportunity in AI memory, or the first domino in a cycle that’s peaking?
First, the surface story: the stock has been crushed, but some buyers are quietly stepping in.
It fell 15–20% in a week, then dropped another 6–8% today. The 52-week high was $2,354; now it’s been cut in half. Trading volume is huge, and the funding rate is still positive—which means the bulls aren’t completely dead yet, while the bears are still collecting rent.
The price has fallen below all short-term moving averages. The MACD has formed a bearish death cross, with consecutive down days, and the RSI at 28–35 is in oversold territory. A technical bounce could come at any time, but the trend is already flat on its back.
First issue: the market is selling first and asking questions later over the “the Chinese are coming” story.
CXMT has made breakthroughs in DRAM, there are rumors about NAND, and YMTC’s NAND market share is also growing. The moment the market hears “Chinese capacity,” the entire memory sector gets spooked—Micron and SK Hynix are getting hit too.
But SNDK’s core business is NAND flash and enterprise SSDs, not DRAM. CXMT makes DRAM, so it isn’t in direct competition with SNDK to the same extent.
Second issue: demand for AI storage hasn’t gone away.
SNDK is a pure-play NAND company spun off from Western Digital. FY2026 revenue was $20.2 billion, up a whopping 175% year over year, with net income of $11.4 billion. Its gross margin at one point topped 80%. Its enterprise and data-center businesses are growing extremely fast; it has a data-storage partnership with Meta, and long-term contracts and prepayments provide revenue visibility.
S&P raised its rating to BBB, citing strong cash flow. The analyst consensus price target is $2,100–$2,200, with some targets above $2,400.
But if that’s the case, why has the stock fallen from $2,354 to $1,310?
Because the market is betting that the memory cycle has peaked, that Chinese capacity will erode pricing power, and that AI capital spending isn’t sustainable.
Third issue: the October 29 earnings report is make-or-break.
For Q1 FY2027, the market expects EPS of about $46 and revenue of about $10.6 billion. The company has beaten expectations by a wide margin in each of the past few quarters.
If earnings beat expectations and guidance is strong → the market realizes the “China scare” was a false alarm → a quick recovery to $1,500–$1,800
If pricing slows or guidance is cautious → the cycle peak is confirmed → a further sharp decline, testing $1,000–$1,200
What you’re buying right now isn’t a stock—it’s a lottery ticket ahead of earnings.