$ARC This time, it wasn’t just support being briefly pierced by a wick—the full hourly candle actually closed below it. The 20:00 update said price had dipped below 0.039540–0.039640 intraday and recovered. Then, from 20:00 to 21:00, it closed at 0.039100, and only the following hour reclaimed the zone. Checking again at 22:05, the current price of 0.039350 is once more below the old range, and the current hourly candle has not closed yet. Whether this recovery can hold is still an open question, so I’ll continue to wait and see.
First, let’s look at how significant this breakdown was. On Binance, the ARCUSDT perpetual contract fell from 0.042040 to 0.039100 between 20:00 and 21:00, down about 6.99%, with a low of 0.038120. Trading volume was about 8.6596 million USDT, up approximately 90.15% from 4.5540 million between 19:00 and 20:00. The previous hour had just rebounded to 0.042020, but this hour erased that entire recovery and fell below the previous low of 0.039240. The price decline accompanied by a clear increase in volume at least shows that this downward move involved more intense trading than the previous one; it can’t simply be dismissed as a routine pullback with no real impact.
The 21:00–22:00 candle then showed buyers stepping in: it opened at 0.039080 and closed at 0.040050, up about 2.48%, once again closing above the old range. The fact that the breakdown did not extend further is a positive development. But volume was about 5.1354 million, down approximately 40.70% from the declining hour; the price reached a high of 0.041320 but ultimately failed to hold near the top. What we can confirm now is that price reclaimed the level; we can’t yet confirm that the high-volume sell-off has been fully absorbed.
Putting the two hourly candles together makes the current predicament easier to understand: buyers stepped in near the lows, but price has not yet recovered to the closing level near 20:00. Reclaiming 0.039540–0.039640 is only the first step. If subsequent candles close back below it, the recovery that just occurred loses credibility; if price can hold above it for several candles and then advance toward 0.041320, we’ll have stronger evidence that buyers are continuing to step in. The earlier rebound level of 0.042620 remains overhead and was never firmly held. There’s no need to jump straight to discussing new highs at this point.
The four-hour picture also needs to distinguish between completed and ongoing candles. The most recent completed candle, from 16:00 to 20:00, fell from 0.042620 to 0.042020, down about 1.41%, on volume of 22.3224 million USDT; at the time, it was still holding above the old range. The 20:00–24:00 candle is only halfway formed, so neither the newly observed close below support nor its recovery can be described in advance as a confirmed four-hour close.
The funding rate settled at 20:00 was still positive at 0.009260%. There has been no new settlement result this round, so an estimated rate shouldn’t be used to dress up a new development. Historical open-interest data and the subsequent real-time data continue to differ noticeably, so I won’t use them to judge which side is adding positions. I also haven’t verified any new project announcement that could independently explain this drop and rebound.
Compared with the 20:00 update, what’s more noteworthy this time is that support was genuinely lost on an hourly close, rather than merely breached intraday. Whether the next candle can continue to close above the reclaimed level is more useful than the still-large gain over the rolling 24-hour period. If price breaks below 0.038120 again and fails to recover, the current signs of buying near the lows will need to be reassessed.
First, let’s look at how significant this breakdown was. On Binance, the ARCUSDT perpetual contract fell from 0.042040 to 0.039100 between 20:00 and 21:00, down about 6.99%, with a low of 0.038120. Trading volume was about 8.6596 million USDT, up approximately 90.15% from 4.5540 million between 19:00 and 20:00. The previous hour had just rebounded to 0.042020, but this hour erased that entire recovery and fell below the previous low of 0.039240. The price decline accompanied by a clear increase in volume at least shows that this downward move involved more intense trading than the previous one; it can’t simply be dismissed as a routine pullback with no real impact.
The 21:00–22:00 candle then showed buyers stepping in: it opened at 0.039080 and closed at 0.040050, up about 2.48%, once again closing above the old range. The fact that the breakdown did not extend further is a positive development. But volume was about 5.1354 million, down approximately 40.70% from the declining hour; the price reached a high of 0.041320 but ultimately failed to hold near the top. What we can confirm now is that price reclaimed the level; we can’t yet confirm that the high-volume sell-off has been fully absorbed.
Putting the two hourly candles together makes the current predicament easier to understand: buyers stepped in near the lows, but price has not yet recovered to the closing level near 20:00. Reclaiming 0.039540–0.039640 is only the first step. If subsequent candles close back below it, the recovery that just occurred loses credibility; if price can hold above it for several candles and then advance toward 0.041320, we’ll have stronger evidence that buyers are continuing to step in. The earlier rebound level of 0.042620 remains overhead and was never firmly held. There’s no need to jump straight to discussing new highs at this point.
The four-hour picture also needs to distinguish between completed and ongoing candles. The most recent completed candle, from 16:00 to 20:00, fell from 0.042620 to 0.042020, down about 1.41%, on volume of 22.3224 million USDT; at the time, it was still holding above the old range. The 20:00–24:00 candle is only halfway formed, so neither the newly observed close below support nor its recovery can be described in advance as a confirmed four-hour close.
The funding rate settled at 20:00 was still positive at 0.009260%. There has been no new settlement result this round, so an estimated rate shouldn’t be used to dress up a new development. Historical open-interest data and the subsequent real-time data continue to differ noticeably, so I won’t use them to judge which side is adding positions. I also haven’t verified any new project announcement that could independently explain this drop and rebound.
Compared with the 20:00 update, what’s more noteworthy this time is that support was genuinely lost on an hourly close, rather than merely breached intraday. Whether the next candle can continue to close above the reclaimed level is more useful than the still-large gain over the rolling 24-hour period. If price breaks below 0.038120 again and fails to recover, the current signs of buying near the lows will need to be reassessed.