Last night’s CPI at 3.7% hasn’t even been fully digested, and tonight PPI delivered another blow. September PPI was up 6.3% year over year, versus market expectations of around 5.3%; month over month it rose 1.3%, while core PPI was up 5.0% year over year, against expectations of 4.4%. Energy was still the main driver.
The market reaction wasn’t as dramatic as I expected. In the hour after the data came out, $BTC fell from 81,183 to 80,535. It dipped again at 9 p.m. to 80,091, and is now hovering around 80,400. $ETH was a bit weaker, with ETH/BTC down 2.4% over 24 hours.
My take is that nearly $1 billion in longs across the market had already been wiped out on CPI day, so leverage had mostly been cleared. That’s why even a hotter-than-expected PPI only led to a slow grind down, rather than a waterfall sell-off. But with upstream prices this hot, it’ll be hard to revive the rate-cut narrative before the October FOMC meeting. 80,000 is right below us; first I want to see whether it holds. I’m in no rush to buy the dip.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.
The market reaction wasn’t as dramatic as I expected. In the hour after the data came out, $BTC fell from 81,183 to 80,535. It dipped again at 9 p.m. to 80,091, and is now hovering around 80,400. $ETH was a bit weaker, with ETH/BTC down 2.4% over 24 hours.
My take is that nearly $1 billion in longs across the market had already been wiped out on CPI day, so leverage had mostly been cleared. That’s why even a hotter-than-expected PPI only led to a slow grind down, rather than a waterfall sell-off. But with upstream prices this hot, it’ll be hard to revive the rate-cut narrative before the October FOMC meeting. 80,000 is right below us; first I want to see whether it holds. I’m in no rush to buy the dip.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.