Answering a question from a follower: Is the bull market still coming? I'm badly underwater on my spot holdings 😭 Can the market rally tonight or not???
In short, the bull market is still coming—but it won't happen this year!
And the next round of accumulation and position rotation will definitely begin when market sentiment is relatively low. There won't be a huge rally across the board—that's impossible. There isn't enough capital to drive prices up and create wealth. The wealth effect will only be weaker than in the bull markets of the past two years.
Second, based on the current trend, $BTC 's strongest support is around 80,000. This is also where many large traders will get liquidated. But the daily trend continues to drift downward, institutions are selling, macroeconomic factors are bearish, and the midterm elections are another source of uncertainty. According to the liquidation map, if the price reaches around 80,000, cumulative liquidations of long positions would approach $250 million.
The market is too heavily weighted toward longs right now. Bull markets involve plenty of shakeouts, and prices definitely can't rise without capital flowing back in. There's a strong chance support will break and the price will fall to around 79,000–78,000.
Third: Is there any hope for spot holdings?
It depends on what sector your altcoin is in, whether its fundamentals are strong, and whether it has a compelling narrative. If it's a sector leader and you're not too far underwater, be patient, keep a level head, and focus on the broader trend. Spot holdings may not go to zero, but they can come very close—so don't be fooled by those so-called KOL experts!
Trading suggestions for the evening of October 15 [personal opinion only; not investment advice]:
Major coins: ETH (short); US stocks: #SNDK ; SK hynix (short)
In short, the bull market is still coming—but it won't happen this year!
And the next round of accumulation and position rotation will definitely begin when market sentiment is relatively low. There won't be a huge rally across the board—that's impossible. There isn't enough capital to drive prices up and create wealth. The wealth effect will only be weaker than in the bull markets of the past two years.
Second, based on the current trend, $BTC 's strongest support is around 80,000. This is also where many large traders will get liquidated. But the daily trend continues to drift downward, institutions are selling, macroeconomic factors are bearish, and the midterm elections are another source of uncertainty. According to the liquidation map, if the price reaches around 80,000, cumulative liquidations of long positions would approach $250 million.
The market is too heavily weighted toward longs right now. Bull markets involve plenty of shakeouts, and prices definitely can't rise without capital flowing back in. There's a strong chance support will break and the price will fall to around 79,000–78,000.
Third: Is there any hope for spot holdings?
It depends on what sector your altcoin is in, whether its fundamentals are strong, and whether it has a compelling narrative. If it's a sector leader and you're not too far underwater, be patient, keep a level head, and focus on the broader trend. Spot holdings may not go to zero, but they can come very close—so don't be fooled by those so-called KOL experts!
Trading suggestions for the evening of October 15 [personal opinion only; not investment advice]:
Major coins: ETH (short); US stocks: #SNDK ; SK hynix (short)