Now that September’s PPI is out, bulls will have to think twice. U.S. PPI rose 1.3% month over month and 6.3% year over year, with the monthly increase the largest since March 2022. If you were waiting for inflation to cool and monetary easing to give crypto another boost, this report isn’t exactly what you wanted to hear.
Energy was the main driver this time, with gasoline prices up 20.3% in a month. But don’t rush to comfort yourself by saying “it’s all oil prices’ fault”—service prices are rising too. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices were still up 0.5% month over month. At least based on this report, inflation hasn’t eased enough for markets to feel reassured.
What people in crypto care about most is when money will get cheaper. If inflation stays stubbornly high, it will be harder for the Fed to pivot easily, and expectations for monetary easing could be pushed further out. For a market driven by liquidity and risk appetite, that’s clearly not good news. So my view is straightforward: this report is bearish for BTC in the short term, and there’s one less reason to chase a rally.
But even if the outlook is bearish, rushing in to short with 10x leverage as soon as the news hits doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll make money. After the data comes out, the price could easily surge in one direction first, draw in momentum traders, and then sweep the other way. Even if you get the direction right, a bad entry can still get you shaken out first.
Tonight, I’m watching to see whether BTC can hold its rebound. If the price can’t get back to the range it was in before the data release, and every rally gets sold off, then the bounce isn’t reassuring enough—and it’s definitely too soon to treat altcoins as a buying opportunity. If the news is bearish but the price refuses to fall, and can later recover its losses, then we have to admit buying pressure is stronger than expected. You can’t stubbornly keep shorting based on one report.
If I had to choose now, I’d lean toward short-term caution. I’m not rushing to declare the bull market back, but I’m not calling it over because of one PPI report either. If the market is truly going to strengthen, we’ll see sustained buying support. If all we get is a few minutes of a sharp rally, there’s no need to use leverage to prove a point.
The people most likely to lose money tonight may be those who see “inflation is out of control,” jump into shorts, and then get pulled into chasing longs by a single green candle.
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