PPI Blows Past Expectations; Bulls Take the First Hit

U.S. September PPI rose 6.3% year over year, the highest since May 2026, versus market expectations of just 5.3%. Month over month, it rose 1.3%, against expectations of 0.5%. Retail sales also beat expectations at 0.8%. All three data points dealt a blow to expectations for monetary easing.

Rate-cut bets are being pushed further out, while the dollar and Treasury yields are rising in tandem, dealing the first blow to risk assets. In the near term, a sharp wick lower is likely, with any rebound likely to be capped. The key is whether support at the previous low holds. If it does, this looks like a shakeout and accumulation; if it breaks, the decline could spread and losses deepen. Altcoins will likely fare even worse.

At this level, are you stopping out or placing a buy order? If it breaks down, back to 1; if it holds, back to 2.

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