$ARC The old breakout level was breached, but the price reclaimed it by the close. This adds another layer of confirmation compared with the piece at 18:00: then, the price was merely approaching the old range; now, a full four-hour candle has closed, with a low of 0.039240 and a final close of 0.042020. I’m still staying on the sidelines for now because it held the level, but has yet to resume its upward push.
From 18:00 to 19:00, Binance ARCUSDT perpetual fell from 0.042010 to 0.040920, down about 2.59%, with an intrahour low of 0.039240, breaking through the previously watched 0.039540–0.039640 zone. Fortunately, it did not close below that range. We can no longer say that “the old level was never lost”; more accurately, it failed intrahour and was then reclaimed, putting support through a real test.
From 19:00 to 20:00, it rebounded to 0.042020, gaining about 2.71% from open to close, with a low of 0.040890—higher than the previous hour’s low. The intrahour high was 0.042670, briefly touching the 0.042620 level I was watching in the previous piece, but the final close remained below it. The rebound is better than simply moving sideways near the lows, but a full close that holds above the level is still needed before we can say the acceleration has resumed. In particular, the recent high of 0.044880 has yet to be successfully retested.
The newly completed four-hour candle from 16:00 to 20:00 makes this back-and-forth clearer: it fell from 0.042620 to 0.042020, down about 1.41% overall, on roughly 22.3224 million USDT in volume. The previous candle, from 12:00 to 16:00, rose about 13.81% on roughly 19.4669 million. Volume increased by about 14.67%, while price action shifted from a rally to a modest pullback, showing that digestion after the breakout has not been easy. Of course, the four-hour close is still above the old breakout zone, so we cannot conclude that the entire preceding rally has failed.
Volume in the final hour was about 4.5540 million USDT, around 7.25% lower than the 4.9102 million from 18:00 to 19:00, and also well below the 10.6114 million in the breakout hour. Trading activity did not accelerate alongside the price recovery. It may continue to consolidate, or the rebound may fail to follow through; there is no need to decide in advance which way the next candle will go. Only if subsequent closes and volume both improve will there be stronger grounds to maintain an upward outlook.
At 20:00, there was also a new, confirmed settlement figure: the funding rate was positive 0.009260%, slightly lower than the positive 0.009914% at 16:00—a very small change that should not be taken as evidence of a sudden shift in the balance between longs and shorts. As for open interest, the historical value for this round does not match the subsequent real-time value, so I will not use it for now or infer capital flows or which side is adding positions from it.
For now, I’ll continue to treat 0.042620 as a key test for whether the rebound can advance, followed by 0.044880 above. To the downside, I’ll watch whether closes can continue to hold above 0.039540–0.039640. If price falls back below that zone, especially if it repeatedly fails to reclaim it by the close, the credit earned from reclaiming the level on this pullback should be taken away. The 20:00–24:00 period has only just begun, so it is too early to describe it as another fully confirmed four-hour candle.
I have not verified any new project announcement that could independently explain this move. What this piece adds is that the old level was lost intrahour and then reclaimed, along with the performance of the first full four-hour candle after the breakout. It is worth acknowledging that the level held, but we must also acknowledge that strength has not yet returned. We should not gloss over the mixed signals in between just because the 24-hour gain remains high.
From 18:00 to 19:00, Binance ARCUSDT perpetual fell from 0.042010 to 0.040920, down about 2.59%, with an intrahour low of 0.039240, breaking through the previously watched 0.039540–0.039640 zone. Fortunately, it did not close below that range. We can no longer say that “the old level was never lost”; more accurately, it failed intrahour and was then reclaimed, putting support through a real test.
From 19:00 to 20:00, it rebounded to 0.042020, gaining about 2.71% from open to close, with a low of 0.040890—higher than the previous hour’s low. The intrahour high was 0.042670, briefly touching the 0.042620 level I was watching in the previous piece, but the final close remained below it. The rebound is better than simply moving sideways near the lows, but a full close that holds above the level is still needed before we can say the acceleration has resumed. In particular, the recent high of 0.044880 has yet to be successfully retested.
The newly completed four-hour candle from 16:00 to 20:00 makes this back-and-forth clearer: it fell from 0.042620 to 0.042020, down about 1.41% overall, on roughly 22.3224 million USDT in volume. The previous candle, from 12:00 to 16:00, rose about 13.81% on roughly 19.4669 million. Volume increased by about 14.67%, while price action shifted from a rally to a modest pullback, showing that digestion after the breakout has not been easy. Of course, the four-hour close is still above the old breakout zone, so we cannot conclude that the entire preceding rally has failed.
Volume in the final hour was about 4.5540 million USDT, around 7.25% lower than the 4.9102 million from 18:00 to 19:00, and also well below the 10.6114 million in the breakout hour. Trading activity did not accelerate alongside the price recovery. It may continue to consolidate, or the rebound may fail to follow through; there is no need to decide in advance which way the next candle will go. Only if subsequent closes and volume both improve will there be stronger grounds to maintain an upward outlook.
At 20:00, there was also a new, confirmed settlement figure: the funding rate was positive 0.009260%, slightly lower than the positive 0.009914% at 16:00—a very small change that should not be taken as evidence of a sudden shift in the balance between longs and shorts. As for open interest, the historical value for this round does not match the subsequent real-time value, so I will not use it for now or infer capital flows or which side is adding positions from it.
For now, I’ll continue to treat 0.042620 as a key test for whether the rebound can advance, followed by 0.044880 above. To the downside, I’ll watch whether closes can continue to hold above 0.039540–0.039640. If price falls back below that zone, especially if it repeatedly fails to reclaim it by the close, the credit earned from reclaiming the level on this pullback should be taken away. The 20:00–24:00 period has only just begun, so it is too early to describe it as another fully confirmed four-hour candle.
I have not verified any new project announcement that could independently explain this move. What this piece adds is that the old level was lost intrahour and then reclaimed, along with the performance of the first full four-hour candle after the breakout. It is worth acknowledging that the level held, but we must also acknowledge that strength has not yet returned. We should not gloss over the mixed signals in between just because the 24-hour gain remains high.