Straight to the answer: No rate hike in October! This forecast is very important for your trading decisions!
The U.S. September PPI data will be released in half an hour. In my view, the odds of it coming in bearish are not high, and even if it is bearish, it would be very unlikely to lead to a rate hike in October!
Last night, the September CPI annual rate and core CPI monthly rate were both bearish, greatly increasing the probability of a Fed rate hike in October. But right now, you need to focus on the most important factor: the recent remarks by the Fed’s five key officials!
A fairly clear policy stance has now emerged within the Fed: there may be another rate hike this year, but it does not necessarily have to happen in October.
Recent remarks and policy leanings of the Fed’s five key figures
1. Kevin Warsh
Warsh recently stressed that U.S. inflation remains above the 2% target and that efforts to bring it down need to continue, but he did not commit to a specific timeline for a rate hike. Hawkish, but keeping his options open.
2. Philip Jefferson
On October 1, Jefferson said more time was needed to assess the direction of the next monetary policy move. The Fed had already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and it now needs to assess the effects of policy on the economy, employment, and inflation.
Policy leaning: Pause rate hikes.
3. John Williams
On October 13, Williams reiterated that if the economy develops as expected, another rate hike may be needed this year to bring inflation further toward the 2% target.
At the same time, he emphasized that the U.S. economy is not broadly overheating. Rates were raised in September, and there is no need to rush into the next move right now.
4. Christopher Waller
Waller believes further rate hikes may still be needed, but they do not have to happen at consecutive meetings. The Fed can decide when to make its next policy adjustment based on changes in inflation, employment, and financial conditions.
5. Michelle Bowman
On October 14, Bowman said U.S. inflation remains above target, but there is no urgency to act immediately. The Fed can continue monitoring economic data before deciding whether to tighten monetary policy further.
The outcome is clearly already in! Sometimes, the more you research, the more wildly wrong you can be.
Politically, October is already a matter of extreme urgency. Raising rates would be like putting a gun to Trump’s head and pulling the trigger!
#ppi #cpi #加息预期 $BTC $ETH $SOL
The U.S. September PPI data will be released in half an hour. In my view, the odds of it coming in bearish are not high, and even if it is bearish, it would be very unlikely to lead to a rate hike in October!
Last night, the September CPI annual rate and core CPI monthly rate were both bearish, greatly increasing the probability of a Fed rate hike in October. But right now, you need to focus on the most important factor: the recent remarks by the Fed’s five key officials!
A fairly clear policy stance has now emerged within the Fed: there may be another rate hike this year, but it does not necessarily have to happen in October.
Recent remarks and policy leanings of the Fed’s five key figures
1. Kevin Warsh
Warsh recently stressed that U.S. inflation remains above the 2% target and that efforts to bring it down need to continue, but he did not commit to a specific timeline for a rate hike. Hawkish, but keeping his options open.
2. Philip Jefferson
On October 1, Jefferson said more time was needed to assess the direction of the next monetary policy move. The Fed had already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and it now needs to assess the effects of policy on the economy, employment, and inflation.
Policy leaning: Pause rate hikes.
3. John Williams
On October 13, Williams reiterated that if the economy develops as expected, another rate hike may be needed this year to bring inflation further toward the 2% target.
At the same time, he emphasized that the U.S. economy is not broadly overheating. Rates were raised in September, and there is no need to rush into the next move right now.
4. Christopher Waller
Waller believes further rate hikes may still be needed, but they do not have to happen at consecutive meetings. The Fed can decide when to make its next policy adjustment based on changes in inflation, employment, and financial conditions.
5. Michelle Bowman
On October 14, Bowman said U.S. inflation remains above target, but there is no urgency to act immediately. The Fed can continue monitoring economic data before deciding whether to tighten monetary policy further.
The outcome is clearly already in! Sometimes, the more you research, the more wildly wrong you can be.
Politically, October is already a matter of extreme urgency. Raising rates would be like putting a gun to Trump’s head and pulling the trigger!
#ppi #cpi #加息预期 $BTC $ETH $SOL