$ZEC Breaking down the structure: there were two high-volume breakdowns in one day, and each rebound came on less volume than the last. I lean toward this move not being over yet.
The first leg was yesterday from 20:00 to 22:00. The daytime highs had been sliding from 1285 at 9:00, and by 19:00 price only reached 1245. At 20:00, about 15.32 million U came in and pushed through 1240; by 22:00, volume had risen to about 21.7 million U, with price reaching 1145. Overnight, it ranged between 1123 and 1178 for around ten hours. After 1:00, hourly volume shrank to about 3.85–7 million U.
The second leg came today at 10:00. That hourly candle saw about 30.29 million U—the largest single-hour volume in two days—and broke straight through the overnight range around 1130, reaching 1081. BTC also saw about 920 million U in volume that hour, dipping to 80161 before recovering to 81497. ZEC, however, closed at just 1114 and failed to recover, showing that the selling pressure wasn't just coming from the broader market. Then, from 13:00 to 14:00, it retested the daily low at 1068.61.
Now look at the rebound. At 15:00 and 16:00, price bounced to 1115 on volume of only about 6 million and 4.5 million U—far less than during the down hours. By 18:00, it was back around 1076.
Gate perpetuals are now at 1088, down 12.3% over 24 hours, with about 202 million U in volume and a funding rate of +0.009% (8h). Even after a drop of over 10%, funding is still positive, so longs don't seem to have been flushed out much. At the same time, BTC is around 81029 (-2.9%) and ETH around 2365 (-5.5%); ZEC is clearly weaker than the broader market.
Key levels: 1068–1081 is the zone of today's two tests of the lows. A high-volume break below it could take the price down another step structurally. Above, 1115–1130 is the rebound high and the overnight range that was broken. A low-volume bounce into this area is likely to meet resistance; it would take a high-volume reclaim of 1130 to count as a recovery.
Looking back at yesterday's INJ call: I said a high-volume break below 7.95–8.00 would send it back to the old 7.7–8.0 range. The breakdown call was right, but I underestimated how far the downside could extend. Today at 10:00, about 1.18 million U came in and drove it straight down to 7.13; it's now at 7.18. A breakdown doesn't mean you can assume price will return to the range—I'll keep that in mind.
This is only a review of market action and is not a recommendation.
The first leg was yesterday from 20:00 to 22:00. The daytime highs had been sliding from 1285 at 9:00, and by 19:00 price only reached 1245. At 20:00, about 15.32 million U came in and pushed through 1240; by 22:00, volume had risen to about 21.7 million U, with price reaching 1145. Overnight, it ranged between 1123 and 1178 for around ten hours. After 1:00, hourly volume shrank to about 3.85–7 million U.
The second leg came today at 10:00. That hourly candle saw about 30.29 million U—the largest single-hour volume in two days—and broke straight through the overnight range around 1130, reaching 1081. BTC also saw about 920 million U in volume that hour, dipping to 80161 before recovering to 81497. ZEC, however, closed at just 1114 and failed to recover, showing that the selling pressure wasn't just coming from the broader market. Then, from 13:00 to 14:00, it retested the daily low at 1068.61.
Now look at the rebound. At 15:00 and 16:00, price bounced to 1115 on volume of only about 6 million and 4.5 million U—far less than during the down hours. By 18:00, it was back around 1076.
Gate perpetuals are now at 1088, down 12.3% over 24 hours, with about 202 million U in volume and a funding rate of +0.009% (8h). Even after a drop of over 10%, funding is still positive, so longs don't seem to have been flushed out much. At the same time, BTC is around 81029 (-2.9%) and ETH around 2365 (-5.5%); ZEC is clearly weaker than the broader market.
Key levels: 1068–1081 is the zone of today's two tests of the lows. A high-volume break below it could take the price down another step structurally. Above, 1115–1130 is the rebound high and the overnight range that was broken. A low-volume bounce into this area is likely to meet resistance; it would take a high-volume reclaim of 1130 to count as a recovery.
Looking back at yesterday's INJ call: I said a high-volume break below 7.95–8.00 would send it back to the old 7.7–8.0 range. The breakdown call was right, but I underestimated how far the downside could extend. Today at 10:00, about 1.18 million U came in and drove it straight down to 7.13; it's now at 7.18. A breakdown doesn't mean you can assume price will return to the range—I'll keep that in mind.
This is only a review of market action and is not a recommendation.