A few thoughts on the “top prediction-market guy” situation today. I don’t know the person involved well, so I’m discussing the issue, not the individual.
It’s actually pretty simple: some things may seem insignificant until they’re weighed down with consequences. Prediction markets occupy a legal gray area in many countries—not just here in China. Most countries treat them as a form of gambling or a variation of it, and generally require the appropriate licenses.
If you just play privately once in a while, nobody is likely to bother you. But if you build a community and recruit people to play, that’s when problems can arise. People say prediction markets take skill, but 99% of people can’t consistently make money without losing. When everyone’s making money, things are all smiles. But what happens when they lose? If someone loses a lot and gets carried away, they might actually come after you—the person who got them into it.
Article 303 of the Criminal Law deals with gambling:
Article 303, Paragraph 1 of the Criminal Law: Gambling
This means organizing multiple people to gamble for profit, or making gambling a profession.
Article 303, Paragraph 2 of the Criminal Law: Operating a casino
This means operating a casino, controlling a gambling platform, acting as an agent to accept bets, or sharing in related profits.
Article 303, Paragraph 3 of the Criminal Law: Organizing people to gamble outside China
This means soliciting Chinese citizens to gamble at casinos outside China, under circumstances that meet the statutory threshold for seriousness.
So, playing on your own isn’t much of an issue, but think carefully before recruiting others. My bio also mentions prediction markets, and quite a few project teams have approached me about referral commissions and revenue sharing. I’ve never taken them up on it. Some money just isn’t worth making—safety comes first.
It’s actually pretty simple: some things may seem insignificant until they’re weighed down with consequences. Prediction markets occupy a legal gray area in many countries—not just here in China. Most countries treat them as a form of gambling or a variation of it, and generally require the appropriate licenses.
If you just play privately once in a while, nobody is likely to bother you. But if you build a community and recruit people to play, that’s when problems can arise. People say prediction markets take skill, but 99% of people can’t consistently make money without losing. When everyone’s making money, things are all smiles. But what happens when they lose? If someone loses a lot and gets carried away, they might actually come after you—the person who got them into it.
Article 303 of the Criminal Law deals with gambling:
Article 303, Paragraph 1 of the Criminal Law: Gambling
This means organizing multiple people to gamble for profit, or making gambling a profession.
Article 303, Paragraph 2 of the Criminal Law: Operating a casino
This means operating a casino, controlling a gambling platform, acting as an agent to accept bets, or sharing in related profits.
Article 303, Paragraph 3 of the Criminal Law: Organizing people to gamble outside China
This means soliciting Chinese citizens to gamble at casinos outside China, under circumstances that meet the statutory threshold for seriousness.
So, playing on your own isn’t much of an issue, but think carefully before recruiting others. My bio also mentions prediction markets, and quite a few project teams have approached me about referral commissions and revenue sharing. I’ve never taken them up on it. Some money just isn’t worth making—safety comes first.