September CPI is out. Why did U.S. prices rise while crypto fell first?
If you’ve been trading crypto for a while, you may have noticed a rather surreal phenomenon: gas gets more expensive for Americans, and your own account balance shrinks too.
This September CPI report is a classic example.
Yesterday, the U.S. released its September inflation data. My take: the report put short-term pressure on crypto, but it’s not enough on its own to determine where the market goes from here.
What the market cared about most was that core inflation was expected to cool—but it didn’t.
Headline CPI rose 0.6% month over month, in line with expectations. But core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, above the expected 0.2%.
Don’t underestimate that 0.1-percentage-point difference. Markets trade on the gap between what actually happens and what people expected. Investors thought inflationary pressure might ease; now they have to run the numbers again.
Energy was the main driver of this inflation rebound: gasoline prices rose 9.1% month over month, accounting for more than half of the overall monthly CPI increase. But core inflation also came in above expectations, so it’s not enough to explain the report away by saying “it was all because of oil prices.”
So how does this feed into crypto?
You can follow the chain like this:
Inflation comes in above expectations → markets raise their interest-rate expectations → the dollar and Treasury yields come under upward pressure → risk assets become less attractive → crypto faces selling pressure.
The higher interest rates are, the more expensive it is to borrow and invest. The opportunity cost of holding cash and bonds also affects how capital is allocated. For cryptocurrencies that rely on fresh inflows to drive their prices, this kind of environment is usually unfavorable.
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
If you’ve been trading crypto for a while, you may have noticed a rather surreal phenomenon: gas gets more expensive for Americans, and your own account balance shrinks too.
This September CPI report is a classic example.
Yesterday, the U.S. released its September inflation data. My take: the report put short-term pressure on crypto, but it’s not enough on its own to determine where the market goes from here.
What the market cared about most was that core inflation was expected to cool—but it didn’t.
Headline CPI rose 0.6% month over month, in line with expectations. But core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, above the expected 0.2%.
Don’t underestimate that 0.1-percentage-point difference. Markets trade on the gap between what actually happens and what people expected. Investors thought inflationary pressure might ease; now they have to run the numbers again.
Energy was the main driver of this inflation rebound: gasoline prices rose 9.1% month over month, accounting for more than half of the overall monthly CPI increase. But core inflation also came in above expectations, so it’s not enough to explain the report away by saying “it was all because of oil prices.”
So how does this feed into crypto?
You can follow the chain like this:
Inflation comes in above expectations → markets raise their interest-rate expectations → the dollar and Treasury yields come under upward pressure → risk assets become less attractive → crypto faces selling pressure.
The higher interest rates are, the more expensive it is to borrow and invest. The opportunity cost of holding cash and bonds also affects how capital is allocated. For cryptocurrencies that rely on fresh inflows to drive their prices, this kind of environment is usually unfavorable.
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何