Yesterday’s myth doesn’t last a session. Spot ETFs $BTC US had taken in +$175.7M on 10/13 (Farside). On 10/14, net flows flipped to -$261.4M.
FBTC (Fidelity) saw -$152.7M in outflows, IBIT (BlackRock) -$110.9M, while BITB (Bitwise) remained at +$2.2M. One day’s reversal wipes out more than the previous rebound. From October 1 to 14, the net balance for US spot BTC ETFs remains around -$537M (Farside).
Meanwhile, $BTC hovered near $81,200 around 09:55 UTC on 10/15 (Kraken / CoinGecko), after a wick near $80,000 in Asia (CoinDesk). Bets on a Fed rate hike in October fell back to around ~26% (CME FedWatch) after peaking near 47% post-CPI, but ETF flows didn’t follow suit.
Takeaway: one green day doesn’t rewrite institutional demand. The remaining October sessions, along with the US PPI and retail sales data on 10/15 (~12:30 UTC), will show whether leverage and ETF redemptions ease together or reinforce each other.
Two paths are in view: an ETF reversal (2+ sessions of inflows) with a sustained reclaim above $83,000 would ease the pressure. Conversely, a hot PPI, another day of outflows above $150M, and a break below $80,000 would reopen the downtrend.
Do you see the -$261.4M on 10/14 as session noise after CPI, or a signal that ETF demand for $BTC still hasn’t returned?
Sources: Farside Investors, CoinDesk, CME FedWatch, Kraken / CoinGecko.
#Bitcoin #ETF
FBTC (Fidelity) saw -$152.7M in outflows, IBIT (BlackRock) -$110.9M, while BITB (Bitwise) remained at +$2.2M. One day’s reversal wipes out more than the previous rebound. From October 1 to 14, the net balance for US spot BTC ETFs remains around -$537M (Farside).
Meanwhile, $BTC hovered near $81,200 around 09:55 UTC on 10/15 (Kraken / CoinGecko), after a wick near $80,000 in Asia (CoinDesk). Bets on a Fed rate hike in October fell back to around ~26% (CME FedWatch) after peaking near 47% post-CPI, but ETF flows didn’t follow suit.
Takeaway: one green day doesn’t rewrite institutional demand. The remaining October sessions, along with the US PPI and retail sales data on 10/15 (~12:30 UTC), will show whether leverage and ETF redemptions ease together or reinforce each other.
Two paths are in view: an ETF reversal (2+ sessions of inflows) with a sustained reclaim above $83,000 would ease the pressure. Conversely, a hot PPI, another day of outflows above $150M, and a break below $80,000 would reopen the downtrend.
Do you see the -$261.4M on 10/14 as session noise after CPI, or a signal that ETF demand for $BTC still hasn’t returned?
Sources: Farside Investors, CoinDesk, CME FedWatch, Kraken / CoinGecko.
#Bitcoin #ETF